Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:30:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2A 0x2a35…5dde other 16 markets active 5d ago coverage 66d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$50 (-68%) realized −$50 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -93% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -93% what you keep after slip
Net edge-93%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate6%1W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit38%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$31
14 days−$40
30 days−$40
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% −$37
world 41% −$7
sports 4% −$3
economics 4% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-93.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 12 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 16 -92.7% -93.4% 6% 6% -71.0%
all 16 -92.7% -93.4% 6% 6% -71.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -93.4% 6% -71.0%
10% -94.0% 0% -73.8%
15% -94.6% 0% -76.3%
20% -95.1% 0% -78.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -68% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -93% · $-wt -68% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -85% → late -100% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$4 · ×0.97 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.06 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

66d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$50
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses1 / 15
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)16 / 16
History coverage66d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit38%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 16 Trades
no open positions (12 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 2 Paraguay? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 1 Czechia? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 0 Czechia? Jun 12 $6 −$6 -97%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -98%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 10 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 2 South Africa? Jun 09 $3 −$3 -97%
Spread: South Africa (-1.5) Jun 09 $2 −$2 -97%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 09 $2 −$2 -97%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 28 $20 +$3 +17%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Will China GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 5.5% and 6.0%? Apr 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Melania say "Iran" during statement on April 9? Apr 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Paraguay? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 4d
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 4d
Exact Score: United States 1 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 4d
Exact Score: United States 1 - 2 Paraguay? BUY Yes 7¢ $3 4d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 4d
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 1 Czechia? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 5d
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 0 Czechia? BUY Yes 11¢ $6 5d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 33¢ $1 7d
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 38¢ $1 7d
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 2 South Africa? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 8d
Spread: South Africa (-1.5) BUY South Africa 3¢ $2 8d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 8d
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 2 South Africa? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? SELL No 100¢ $13 49d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? SELL No 72¢ $10 61d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? BUY No 73¢ $20 61d
Will China GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 5.5% and 6.0%? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 66d
Will China GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 5.5% and 6.0%? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 67d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? BUY No 0¢ $3 68d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? BUY No 0¢ $1 69d
Will Melania say "Iran" during statement on April 9? BUY Yes 81¢ $1 70d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? BUY No 1¢ $5 70d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 25 history records