Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:38:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2A 0x2a35…53f2 crypto 141 markets active 1h ago coverage 262d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,712 (-14%) realized −$1,712 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate55%77W / 64L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$86per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$35
7 days−$51
14 days−$57
30 days−$58
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 75% −$866
sports 13% −$118
other 11% −$935
politics 0% +$69
economics 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-15.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 14 -12.2% -20.5% 57% 50% -18.9%
≤90d 46 -10.4% -18.9% 67% 37% -24.3%
all 141 -6.8% -15.7% 55% 41% -23.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.7% 41% -23.3%
10% -23.7% 34% -30.6%
15% -31.1% 18% -37.3%
20% -37.8% 13% -43.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +15% → late -28% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$58 · ×0.41 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.5 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

262d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,712
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses77 / 64
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions0
Markets (closed)141 / 141
History coverage262d
Avg bet$86
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 141 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $36 −$35 -99%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 12 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 08 $106 −$56 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 08 $67 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 08 $41 +$26 +65%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 08 $31 +$9 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 08 $25 +$7 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 08 $16 +$9 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 08 $47 −$31 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 08 $38 +$10 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 08 $49 +$16 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 08 $19 +$2 +12%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans May 31 $69 −$1 -1%
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Sunrisers Hyderabad May 18 $83 −$81 -98%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Mumbai Indians May 10 $65 +$31 +48%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Punjab Kings May 04 $10 +$2 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Apr 27 $400 −$400 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Apr 14 $589 −$589 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026? Apr 14 $300 −$300 -100%
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Royal Challengers Bangalore Apr 12 $412 +$27 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Apr 12 $359 +$26 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Apr 12 $343 +$16 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Apr 12 $625 +$48 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Apr 12 $411 +$28 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Apr 12 $429 −$3 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Apr 12 $95 +$29 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Apr 11 $373 +$140 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Apr 11 $63 +$3 +5%
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Royal Challengers Bangalore Apr 10 $344 +$29 +8%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from March 28 to March 30, 2026? Mar 30 $280 +$21 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Mar 30 $3 −$1 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Mar 30 $31 −$18 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Mar 30 $37 +$5 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Mar 30 $31 +$2 +6%
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Kolkata Knight Riders Mar 29 $30 +$9 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Mar 29 $20 +$6 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Mar 29 $30 +$9 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Mar 29 $53 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Mar 29 $102 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Mar 29 $46 +$4 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Mar 29 $44 +$27 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Mar 29 $19 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Mar 29 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Mar 29 $25 −$25 -100%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Sunrisers Hydera Mar 28 $15 +$4 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Mar 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Mar 16 $1 +$2 +187%
T20 World Cup: India vs New Zealand Mar 08 $29 −$28 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Mar 08 $56 −$56 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 51¢ $36 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 29¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $13 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET SELL Down 23¢ $13 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $44 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET SELL Up 28¢ $37 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $62 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $67 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET SELL Up 83¢ $67 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $41 9d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET SELL Up 89¢ $40 9d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $31 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET SELL Up 89¢ $31 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $25 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $25 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $16 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET SELL Up 18¢ $16 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $47 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET SELL Up 54¢ $47 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $38 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $27 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET SELL Down 43¢ $27 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $22 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $21 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $19 9d
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans SELL Gujarat Titans 0¢ $0 17d
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans BUY Gujarat Titans 12¢ $18 17d
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans SELL Royal Challengers Bengaluru 76¢ $68 17d
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans BUY Royal Challengers Bengaluru 55¢ $50 17d
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Sunrisers Hyderabad BUY Chennai Super Kings 46¢ $83 30d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 376 history records