Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T13:54:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2A
0x2a34…40df
crypto · 282 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$318 -6%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$318 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$10
Realized−$318
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses153 / 127
Open positions1
Markets (closed)280 / 282
History coverage105d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day10.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%
Chart Positions 1 History 280 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$36
7 days−$36
14 days−$36
30 days−$36
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Yes 48¢ 46¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 12 $51 +$5 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 12 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 12 $51 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 12 $55 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 12 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 12 $52 +$5 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 12 $53 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 12 $50 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 12 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 12 $11 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 12 $6 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Apr 20 $7 −$3 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Apr 20 $2 −$1 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Apr 20 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Apr 20 $1 −$1 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Apr 20 $2 $0 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Apr 20 $2 −$1 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Apr 20 $7 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Apr 20 $3 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Apr 20 $6 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Apr 20 $2 +$1 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Apr 20 $6 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Apr 18 $9 −$5 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Apr 18 $3 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Apr 18 $1 $0 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Apr 18 $11 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Apr 18 $9 −$8 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Apr 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Apr 18 $8 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Apr 18 $12 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Apr 18 $4 +$3 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Apr 18 $10 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Apr 18 $6 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Apr 18 $16 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Apr 18 $2 −$2 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Apr 18 $5 +$2 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Apr 18 $1 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Apr 18 $5 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Apr 18 $1 $0 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Apr 18 $1 −$1 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Apr 18 $0 $0 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Apr 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 99% −$299
world 0% −$19
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $6 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $5 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $42 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $40 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET SELL Up 45¢ $14 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $10 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $51 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $53 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $51 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $55 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET SELL Up 2¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $50 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET SELL Up 67¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $56 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $51 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET SELL Down 71¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $54 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET SELL Up 6¢ $0 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $51 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET SELL Down 82¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $1 4h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $52 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -11.6% -20.1% 74% 21% -16.3%
≤30d 19 -11.6% -20.1% 74% 21% -16.3%
≤90d 230 -7.7% -16.5% 52% 38% -19.9%
all 280 -2.1% -11.4% 55% 41% -14.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover10.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.4% 41% -14.8%
10% -19.9% 31% -23.0%
15% -27.6% 21% -30.4%
20% -34.7% 14% -37.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.69 · official $14.69 · 1160 history records