Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:03:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
2A 0x2a32…0188 sports 317 markets active 0h ago coverage 140d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 140d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$3,675 (+2%) realized +$3,478 · open +$197
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate75%231W / 76L
Whale WR83%big bets
Drawdown51%max
Avg bet$662per market
Trades / day21.6pace
Fees−$185est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$6,943now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 140d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 35% −$273
politics 29% +$2,900
sports 25% +$2,813
world 7% +$3,001
finance 4% +$886
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-6.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -15.2% -23.3% 56% 50% -4.7%
≤30d 44 -6.6% -15.5% 59% 52% -3.8%
≤90d 126 +8.5% -1.8% 71% 63% -2.8%
all 307 +3.5% -6.4% 75% 47% -5.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.6 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.4% 47% -5.5%
10% -15.3% 39% -14.5%
15% ← realistic here -23.5% 32% -22.8%
20% -31.0% 21% -30.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 83% (≥$580) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +4% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
6.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$118 vs −$252 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.5 per $1 lost it wins $1.5
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

140d coverage
Net worth$6,943
Realized+$3,478
Unrealized+$197
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses231 / 76
Whale WR (big bets)83%
Est. fees paid−$185
Open positions10
Markets (closed)307 / 317
History coverage140d ⚠
Avg bet$662
Trades / day21.6
Drawdown51%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 307 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? Yes 65¢ 98¢ $1,630 $2,441 +$811 (+50%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,800 by end of June? No 87¢ 98¢ $1,389 $1,575 +$186 (+13%)
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Yes 87¢ 88¢ $1,401 $1,417 +$16 (+1%)
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? No 75¢ 76¢ $465 $468 +$3 (+1%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Yes 67¢ 82¢ $335 $408 +$73 (+22%)
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Yes 30¢ 28¢ $300 $275 −$25 (-8%)
Will Marco Rubio attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? No 94¢ 89¢ $168 $160 −$8 (-5%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? Yes 54¢ 86¢ $97 $154 +$57 (+58%)
Will Steve Witkoff attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Yes 73¢ 72¢ $33 $33 −$0 (-1%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? Yes 55¢ 1¢ $927 $12 −$916 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 17 $61,812 +$2,900 +5%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 17 $183 −$183 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $2 +$3 +109%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $1,650 +$845 +51%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $171 +$25 +15%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 15 $1,180 +$820 +70%
Game Handicap: GEN (-1.5) vs T1 (+1.5) Jun 15 $52 −$52 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $94 −$94 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 15 $280 −$280 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $198 +$102 +52%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $28 −$28 -100%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Natus Vincere (+1.5) Jun 14 $122 −$122 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $289 +$130 +45%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $680 +$320 +47%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $130 +$70 +54%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $445 +$350 +79%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $107 −$107 -100%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,200 by end of June? Jun 11 $1,062 −$1,062 -100%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 08 $134 +$66 +49%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $112 +$88 +79%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $124 +$2 +2%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $142 +$58 +41%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 06 $146 +$54 +37%
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) Jun 06 $51 −$51 -100%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Monte (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $30 +$2 +7%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs Lynn Vision (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $124 +$76 +61%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs MIBR (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 03 $100 +$100 +100%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $402 +$282 +70%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 30 $82 −$82 -100%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 30 $80 −$80 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-2.5) May 30 $153 −$153 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? May 29 $1,570 +$430 +27%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs MOUZ (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Pla May 23 $238 +$134 +56%
Spread: Knicks (-5.5) May 22 $260 +$240 +92%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Liquid (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Gro May 21 $100 +$100 +100%
Spread: Thunder (-6.5) May 21 $270 +$230 +85%
James Harden: Points O/U 19.5 May 20 $50 +$50 +100%
Spread: Knicks (-5.5) May 20 $280 +$220 +79%
Will FUT Esports win IEM Atlanta 2026? May 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A May 19 $130 −$130 -100%
Spread: Thunder (-6.5) May 19 $106 −$106 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - PGL Astana Group S May 19 $123 −$123 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 19 $195 −$195 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-6.5) May 19 $176 −$176 -100%
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs GamerLegion (+1.5) May 18 $11 +$7 +70%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO5) - PGL Astana Playoffs May 17 $72 +$48 +67%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Spirit (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs May 16 $140 +$60 +43%
Will Vitality win IEM Atlanta 2026? May 16 $235 +$265 +113%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs Natus Vincere (+1.5) May 16 $105 +$95 +90%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs May 15 $112 +$88 +79%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY Yes 87¢ $87 2m
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY Yes 87¢ $1 2m
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY Yes 87¢ $33 8m
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY Yes 87¢ $409 9m
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY Yes 87¢ $238 9m
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY Yes 87¢ $67 55m
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY Yes 87¢ $552 56m
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY Yes 87¢ $7 1h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 75¢ $1 1h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 75¢ $464 1h
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY Yes 87¢ $7 1h
Will Steve Witkoff attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? BUY Yes 73¢ $33 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $2,495 8h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 0.5 BUY Under 47¢ $2 8h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 67¢ $335 22h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? BUY Yes 54¢ $1 23h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? BUY Yes 54¢ $97 23h
Will Marco Rubio attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? BUY No 94¢ $0 23h
Will Marco Rubio attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? BUY No 94¢ $5 23h
Will Marco Rubio attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? BUY No 94¢ $164 23h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? SELL No 20¢ $196 42h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY No 17¢ $171 43h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 61¢ $183 47h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 56¢ $168 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 56¢ $112 2d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 47¢ $10 2d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 47¢ $14 2d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 47¢ $51 2d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 47¢ $19 2d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 66¢ $198 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6,942.95 · official $6,942.95 (match) · 3500 history records