Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:43:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
2A 0x2a30…0061 other 158 markets active 1h ago coverage 158d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,813 (-1%) realized −$1,805 · open −$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate19%29W / 127L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,114per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$26est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$405now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$9
7 days−$18
14 days−$55
30 days−$34
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 42% −$248
politics 42% −$188
sports 7% −$1,544
economics 3% −$2
culture 2% −$2
world 2% +$141
crypto 2% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 35 +1.1% -8.5% 9% 6% -9.6%
≤90d 98 -12.1% -20.5% 5% 2% -11.1%
all 156 -0.4% -9.9% 19% 12% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 12% -10.5%
10% -18.5% 10% -19.0%
15% -26.4% 7% -26.9%
20% -33.6% 6% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,667) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +0% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$20 · ×1.06 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.25 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

158d coverage
Net worth$405
Realized−$1,805
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses29 / 127
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$26
Open positions2
Markets (closed)156 / 158
History coverage158d
Avg bet$1,114
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 156 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June? No 99¢ 99¢ $360 $360 +$0 (+0%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees Tampa Bay Rays 45¢ 38¢ $53 $45 −$8 (-14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 17 $1,959 −$2 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $2,607 −$4 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 15 $1,667 −$3 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 15 $2,790 −$3 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 13 $652 −$1 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $1,779 −$2 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 10 $1,669 −$3 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? Jun 09 $693 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $1,716 −$2 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 08 $910 −$2 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 08 $888 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $908 −$1 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? Jun 07 $1,909 −$3 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 06 $810 −$1 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 06 $913 −$1 -0%
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) Jun 06 $74 +$52 +70%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $3,064 −$3 -0%
Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 03 $74 −$74 -100%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $934 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 02 $1,021 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in May? Jun 02 $489 +$2 +0%
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 01 $552 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $1,710 −$2 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 28 $648 −$1 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 27 $1,099 −$1 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 26 $1,175 −$1 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 25 $1,047 −$2 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 22 $2,263 −$2 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 22 $3,314 −$4 -0%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 22 $858 −$1 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 22 $4,406 −$5 -0%
Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins May 22 $61 +$45 +73%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 21 $1,911 −$3 -0%
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 20 $932 −$1 -0%
Will XRP dip to $0.60 in May? May 20 $467 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? May 10 $1,030 −$1 -0%
Will Croatia win Eurovision 2026? May 10 $1,118 −$2 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 09 $1,143 −$1 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 09 $2,390 −$3 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 09 $1,100 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 08 $2,202 −$3 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 08 $2,263 −$3 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 08 $2,251 −$2 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? May 07 $1,106 −$1 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 07 $2,003 −$3 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 05 $1,145 −$2 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 04 $1,014 −$2 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 04 $1,010 −$2 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 03 $1,018 −$2 -0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? May 03 $1,017 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $775 1h
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $776 3h
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $540 43h
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $541 45h
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $644 45h
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $645 2d
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $732 2d
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $734 2d
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $651 3d
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $652 3d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $708 4d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $709 4d
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June? BUY No 99¢ $360 4d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,059 6d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,061 7d
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $693 7d
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $693 8d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $710 8d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $712 8d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,068 8d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,069 8d
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $908 8d
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $910 8d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $886 9d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $888 9d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $907 9d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $908 9d
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $787 10d
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $788 10d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $809 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $405.16 · official $405.16 (match) · 552 history records