Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:02:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2A 0x2a2f…7760 crypto 105 markets active 1h ago coverage 227d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$80 (+2%) realized +$82 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate34%35W / 67L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$153now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$61
7 days+$61
14 days+$61
30 days+$61
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 29% −$39
other 28% +$215
crypto 24% +$3
world 10% −$123
sports 4% +$18
culture 2% −$80
politics 2% −$52
tech 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-25.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +50.0% +35.7% 100% 100% +35.7%
≤30d 1 +50.0% +35.7% 100% 100% +35.7%
≤90d 72 -23.1% -30.4% 36% 36% -13.9%
all 102 -17.9% -25.7% 34% 34% -11.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.7% 34% -11.2%
10% -32.8% 32% -19.7%
15% -39.3% 29% -27.5%
20% -45.3% 24% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -34% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$43 vs −$23 · ×1.84 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

227d coverage
Net worth$153
Realized+$82
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses35 / 67
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)102 / 105
History coverage227d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 102 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Yes 42¢ 42¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 51 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $121 +$61 +50%
Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting occur after May 10? May 04 $15 −$15 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 26, 2026? Apr 24 $150 −$150 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 8°C or higher on April 24? Apr 24 $20 −$19 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 23°C on April 24? Apr 24 $30 −$29 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 16°C on April 23? Apr 24 $60 +$87 +145%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on April 23? Apr 23 $40 −$40 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on April 24? Apr 23 $19 −$19 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 27°C on April 24? Apr 23 $6 −$6 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 21°C on April 24? Apr 23 $50 −$48 -97%
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on April 22? Apr 23 $20 +$43 +215%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Apr 22 $10 −$9 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Apr 22 $20 +$85 +427%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Apr 22 $10 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Apr 22 $10 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Apr 22 $10 −$9 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Apr 22 $10 −$9 -94%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 10°C on April 22? Apr 22 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 16°C on April 22? Apr 22 $4 −$4 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 15°C on April 22? Apr 22 $2 −$2 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 14°C on April 22? Apr 22 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Apr 22 $20 −$19 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Apr 22 $20 −$9 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Apr 22 $40 +$26 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Apr 22 $22 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Apr 22 $10 +$5 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Apr 22 $40 −$39 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Apr 22 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Apr 22 $20 +$20 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Apr 22 $30 −$29 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Apr 22 $20 −$19 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Apr 22 $30 +$28 +93%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on April 23? Apr 22 $20 −$19 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on April 23? Apr 22 $100 −$98 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Apr 22 $30 +$34 +113%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Apr 22 $20 −$19 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Apr 22 $30 +$14 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Apr 22 $5 −$5 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Apr 22 $20 +$14 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Apr 20 $40 −$39 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Apr 20 $50 +$16 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Apr 20 $32 +$35 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Apr 20 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Apr 20 $10 −$9 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Apr 20 $31 −$16 -50%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 18°C or higher on April 21? Apr 20 $100 −$96 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Apr 20 $49 −$12 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Apr 20 $10 +$8 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Apr 20 $10 −$9 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Apr 20 $25 +$11 +44%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $15 58m
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 42¢ $41 58m
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $101 58m
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $121 24h
Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting occur after May 10? BUY No 8¢ $15 43d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 26, 2026? BUY Yes 58¢ $150 53d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 8°C or higher on April 24? BUY Yes 13¢ $20 53d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 23°C on April 24? BUY Yes 27¢ $30 54d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on April 24? BUY Yes 27¢ $19 54d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 27°C on April 24? BUY Yes 1¢ $6 54d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 21°C on April 24? BUY Yes 32¢ $50 54d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 14¢ $10 55d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $10 55d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $10 55d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $10 55d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET SELL Down 14¢ $12 55d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $10 55d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $10 55d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $10 55d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 10°C on April 22? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 55d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 16°C on April 22? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 55d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 15°C on April 22? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 55d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 15°C on April 22? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 55d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 14°C on April 22? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 55d
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on April 23? BUY Yes 46¢ $40 55d
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on April 22? BUY Yes 31¢ $20 55d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $10 55d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $10 55d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $10 55d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET SELL Up 53¢ $45 55d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $153.25 · official $153.27 (match) · 200 history records