Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T10:39:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
2A 0x2a2e…a549 crypto 24 markets active 2h ago coverage 158d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$30 (+0%) realized +$30 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate95%21W / 1L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$1,215per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$123now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$30
tech 0% $0
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 5 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 11 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.3%
all 22 +0.2% -9.4% 95% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 0% -9.4%
10% -18.1% 0% -18.1%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 92% · top 2 93% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs — no data
Profit factor
no data
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

158d coverage
Net worth$123
Realized+$30
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)95%
Wins / losses21 / 1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)22 / 24
History coverage158d
Avg bet$1,215
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 22 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $2,700 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $63 $63 +$0 (+0%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $59 $59 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? Jun 06 $14 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in May? Jun 06 $17 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $170 in May? Jun 06 $23 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? Jun 06 $31 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $400 in May? Jun 06 $60 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $10 in April? May 07 $7 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $600 in April? May 07 $24 $0 +0%
Will BNB reach $1,000 in April? May 07 $27 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 in April? May 07 $33 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in April? May 07 $54 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in March? Apr 08 $145 $0 +0%
Bitcoin all time high by March 31, 2026? Mar 18 $27,462 +$28 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in March? Mar 17 $100 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in February? Mar 06 $118 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in February? Feb 25 $118 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 14? Feb 15 $118 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on February 11? Feb 11 $118 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on February 6? Feb 07 $117 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on February 4 Feb 05 $117 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $86,000 and $88,000 on February 3 Feb 03 $117 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Janua Feb 01 $117 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 in January? Jan 25 $97 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in June? BUY No 100¢ $59 1h
Will Ethereum reach $2,700 in June? BUY No 100¢ $63 45h
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $14 32d
Will Solana reach $170 in May? BUY No 100¢ $23 36d
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $17 38d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $31 42d
Will Ethereum dip to $400 in May? BUY No 100¢ $60 47d
Will Solana dip to $10 in April? BUY No 100¢ $7 60d
Will Ethereum dip to $600 in April? BUY No 100¢ $24 64d
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $33 67d
Will BNB reach $1,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $27 70d
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $54 75d
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $145 94d
Bitcoin all time high by March 31, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $27,023 98d
Bitcoin all time high by March 31, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $467 99d
Bitcoin all time high by March 31, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $11,719 99d
Bitcoin all time high by March 31, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $818 99d
Bitcoin all time high by March 31, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $476 99d
Bitcoin all time high by March 31, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $360 99d
Bitcoin all time high by March 31, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $480 99d
Bitcoin all time high by March 31, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $590 99d
Bitcoin all time high by March 31, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $346 99d
Bitcoin all time high by March 31, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $339 99d
Bitcoin all time high by March 31, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $199 99d
Bitcoin all time high by March 31, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $2,185 99d
Bitcoin all time high by March 31, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $4,581 99d
Bitcoin all time high by March 31, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $3,316 99d
Bitcoin all time high by March 31, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $52 99d
Bitcoin all time high by March 31, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $716 99d
Bitcoin all time high by March 31, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $190 99d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $122.56 · official $122.56 (match) · 64 history records