Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T05:11:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

2A 0x2a2e…d149 other 7 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover

Total PnL −$19 (-16%) realized −$8 · open −$14

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -33% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -44% what you keep after slip

Net edge-44%after slip

Net WR33%break-even

Win rate33%1W / 2L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$17per market

Trades / day14.0pace

Fees−$0est.

Kalshi-fit29%portable

Net worth$50now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +33%

net ROI/market (all)-39.0%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	3	-32.6%	-39.0%	33%	33%	-25.2%
≤30d	3	-32.6%	-39.0%	33%	33%	-25.2%
≤90d	3	-32.6%	-39.0%	33%	33%	-25.2%
all	3	-32.6%	-39.0%	33%	33%	-25.2%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover14.0 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-39.0%	33%	-25.2%
10%	-44.8%	0%	-32.3%
15%	-50.2%	0%	-38.9%
20%	-55.1%	0%	-44.9%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -17% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -33% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$3 vs −$6 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.29 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$50

Realized−$8

Unrealized−$14

Win rate (resolved)33%

Wins / losses1 / 2

Est. fees paid−$0

Open positions4

Markets (closed)3 / 7

History coverage1d

Avg bet$17

Trades / day14.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit29%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 4 History 3 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27?	Yes	85¢	84¢	$30	$30	−$0 (-1%)
Will England win on 2026-06-27?	Yes	83¢	84¢	$10	$10	+$0 (+1%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?	Yes	58¢	57¢	$10	$10	−$0 (-1%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26?	Yes	50¢	0¢	$14	$0	−$14 (-100%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26?	Jun 27	$25	+$3	+13%
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw?	Jun 27	$10	−$1	-10%
New Zealand vs. Belgium: Both Teams to Score in Second Half	Jun 27	$10	−$10	-98%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26?	SELL Yes	100¢	$28	3m
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	33¢	$4	1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27?	BUY Yes	85¢	$30	1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?	BUY Yes	58¢	$10	1h
Will England win on 2026-06-27?	BUY Yes	83¢	$10	1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	95¢	$10	1h
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw?	SELL Yes	32¢	$9	1h
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw?	BUY Yes	34¢	$10	1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	62¢	$3	1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	62¢	$7	1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26?	SELL Yes	47¢	$12	2h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: Both Teams to Score in Second Half	BUY No	70¢	$10	2h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	83¢	$15	2h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	37¢	$10	2h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49.82 · official $49.82 (match) · 14 history records