Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T09:02:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2A
0x2a2e…8086
other · 14 markets active 1h ago
4.0score
+$7 +7%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$7 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY ⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$41
Realized+$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses3 / 4
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions7
Markets (closed)7 / 14
History coverage41d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown84%
Kalshi-fit64%
Chart Positions 7 History 7 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$9
7 days−$3
14 days+$7
30 days+$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Roberto Vannacci be the next Prime Minister of Italy? No 80¢ 86¢ $12 $13 +$1 (+8%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-1%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-1%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Mario Draghi be the next Prime Minister of Italy? Yes 5¢ 3¢ $9 $5 −$3 (-40%)
Will Antonio Tajani be the next Prime Minister of Italy? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $1 $4 +$2 (+192%)
Will Giuseppe Conte be the next Prime Minister of Italy? Yes 7¢ 7¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will "hate that i made you love me - Ariana Grande" be the #1 song on US Spotify this week? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will "I Knew It, I Knew You - Taylor Swift" be the #1 song on Spotify this week? Yes 48¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will "hate that i made you love me - Ariana Grande" be the #1 song on Jun 13 $8 −$8 -100%
Will "I Knew It, I Knew You - Taylor Swift" be the #1 song on US Spoti Jun 12 $3 +$16 +509%
Will "hate that i made you love me - Ariana Grande" be the #1 song on Jun 08 $1 −$1 -95%
World Cup: Messi to Score a Free Kick? Jun 08 $7 −$1 -22%
Will "I Knew It, I Knew You - Taylor Swift" be the #1 song on Spotify Jun 07 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Roland Garros Men's Singles? Jun 07 $19 +$2 +9%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 31 $8 +$10 +124%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 44% $0
politics 26% $0
culture 22% −$3
sports 8% +$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $6 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $8 1h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $6 1h
Will "hate that i made you love me - Ariana Grande" be the #1 song on BUY No 16¢ $3 3d
Will Roberto Vannacci be the next Prime Minister of Italy? SELL No 86¢ $3 3d
Will "hate that i made you love me - Ariana Grande" be the #1 song on BUY No 13¢ $2 3d
Will Roberto Vannacci be the next Prime Minister of Italy? SELL No 85¢ $2 3d
Will "hate that i made you love me - Ariana Grande" be the #1 song on BUY No 31¢ $4 4d
Will "hate that i made you love me - Ariana Grande" be the #1 song on BUY Yes 1¢ $1 4d
Will "hate that i made you love me - Ariana Grande" be the #1 song on BUY Yes 1¢ $0 4d
Will Mario Draghi be the next Prime Minister of Italy? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 4d
World Cup: Messi to Score a Free Kick? SELL Yes 27¢ $5 4d
Will "I Knew It, I Knew You - Taylor Swift" be the #1 song on US Spoti BUY No 16¢ $3 5d
Will "I Knew It, I Knew You - Taylor Swift" be the #1 song on Spotify BUY Yes 48¢ $10 5d
World Cup: Messi to Score a Free Kick? BUY Yes 33¢ $7 5d
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Roland Garros Men's Singles? SELL Yes 83¢ $20 5d
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Roland Garros Men's Singles? BUY Yes 76¢ $19 7d
Will Mario Draghi be the next Prime Minister of Italy? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 9d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 44¢ $8 37d
Will Antonio Tajani be the next Prime Minister of Italy? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 38d
Will Antonio Tajani be the next Prime Minister of Italy? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 38d
Will Antonio Tajani be the next Prime Minister of Italy? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 38d
Will Antonio Tajani be the next Prime Minister of Italy? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 38d
Will Mario Draghi be the next Prime Minister of Italy? BUY Yes 5¢ $8 39d
Will Mario Draghi be the next Prime Minister of Italy? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 39d
Will Giuseppe Conte be the next Prime Minister of Italy? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 39d
Will Roberto Vannacci be the next Prime Minister of Italy? BUY No 80¢ $16 40d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)+31.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +32.7% +20.1% 33% 17% -14.4%
≤30d 7 +45.7% +31.8% 43% 29% +2.5%
≤90d 7 +45.7% +31.8% 43% 29% +2.5%
all 7 +45.7% +31.8% 43% 29% +2.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +31.8% 29% +2.5%
10% +19.2% 29% -7.3%
15% +7.7% 29% -16.3%
20% -2.9% 29% -24.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $41.48 · official $41.48 (match) · 30 history records