Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:35:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
2A 0x2a2b…2030 other 344 markets active 1h ago coverage 353d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,774 (+7%) realized +$2,202 · open −$428
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate57%181W / 138L
Drawdown48%max
Avg bet$74per market
Trades / day3.6pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit47%portable
Net worth$752now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$16
7 days+$166
14 days+$226
30 days+$568
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% +$1,711
politics 17% +$586
sports 10% +$897
economics 6% −$194
world 6% −$480
weather 4% +$25
culture 3% −$686
crypto 2% −$123
tech 2% +$36
finance 0% −$40
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 +19.2% +7.8% 67% 50% +10.6%
≤30d 36 +6.0% -4.1% 67% 47% +8.3%
≤90d 87 +0.1% -9.4% 60% 45% +2.2%
all 319 -2.0% -11.4% 57% 45% -1.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.4% 45% -1.5%
10% -19.8% 34% -10.9%
15% -27.6% 25% -19.5%
20% -34.7% 19% -27.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +9% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$37 vs −$34 · ×1.09 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.47 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

353d coverage
Net worth$752
Realized+$2,202
Unrealized−$428
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses181 / 138
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions25
Markets (closed)319 / 344
History coverage353d
Avg bet$74
Trades / day3.6
Drawdown48%
Kalshi-fit47%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 25 History 319 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 58¢ 64¢ $75 $84 +$9 (+12%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 70¢ 68¢ $70 $68 −$2 (-2%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $53 $56 +$4 (+7%)
Will Iraq advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 85¢ 96¢ $42 $48 +$5 (+12%)
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Yes 32¢ 32¢ $48 $47 −$1 (-2%)
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? Yes 80¢ 86¢ $40 $43 +$3 (+7%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Yes 80¢ 80¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 77¢ 76¢ $38 $38 −$1 (-2%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 70¢ 70¢ $35 $35 +$0 (+1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 57¢ 57¢ $34 $34 +$0 (+1%)
Will Martin Ødegaard score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 53¢ 62¢ $28 $34 +$5 (+18%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 56¢ 56¢ $28 $28 +$0 (+1%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $28 $28 −$0 (-1%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $25 $23 −$2 (-9%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Yes 47¢ 46¢ $24 $23 −$1 (-3%)
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $22 $22 −$0 (-2%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $22 $21 −$1 (-4%)
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? Yes 36¢ 40¢ $18 $20 +$2 (+12%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $17 $17 +$0 (+2%)
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 43¢ 44¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+1%)
Will Cape Verde finish last in Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 52¢ 41¢ $13 $10 −$3 (-21%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Yes 11¢ $16 $10 −$7 (-40%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Yes 50¢ $346 $4 −$343 (-99%)
U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30? Yes 42¢ $42 $2 −$40 (-95%)
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Yes 39¢ $58 $1 −$58 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 22 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $36 +$14 +40%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $122 +$28 +23%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $81 +$59 +73%
Will France reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $58 +$2 +3%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $38 −$14 -36%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $105 −$105 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $55 +$145 +262%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $38 +$2 +6%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $13 $0 +0%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $23 +$25 +109%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $16 +$9 +52%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $32 +$18 +57%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $30 −$3 -10%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $23 +$37 +165%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Mexico O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $30 +$20 +64%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 11 $35 −$34 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 10 $22 −$22 -98%
Will Venezuela win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $22 +$28 +125%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-08? Jun 09 $119 +$31 +26%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-09? Jun 08 $62 −$61 -99%
Will Morocco vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 07 $31 +$40 +132%
Will Wesley So win Norway Chess 2026? Jun 06 $63 +$37 +59%
Will Iran Play in the World Cup? Jun 05 $4 −$4 -97%
Will Magnus Carlsen win Norway Chess 2026? Jun 05 $126 +$32 +25%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 04 $27 −$27 -99%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Jun 03 $362 $0 +0%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 03 $16 −$16 -98%
Will Bibisara Assaubayeva win Norway Chess 2026? Jun 01 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 01 $127 +$5 +4%
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on May 29? May 30 $52 +$14 +27%
Will Divya Deshmukh win Norway Chess 2026? May 29 $8 −$8 -98%
Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C on May 26? May 27 $45 +$5 +10%
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on May 23? May 25 $45 +$4 +10%
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on May 22? May 23 $87 +$13 +15%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? May 20 $901 +$339 +38%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $95 +$5 +6%
Will Finland be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026? May 16 $80 −$80 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on May 15? May 16 $75 +$13 +17%
Will Trump say "Japan" or "Korea" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $33 +$17 +53%
Will Trump say "Taiwan" or "Tibet" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $31 +$19 +59%
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on May 14? May 15 $44 +$6 +15%
Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by June 30? May 15 $144 +$6 +4%
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on May 13? May 13 $5 −$4 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C or higher on May 9? May 11 $20 +$5 +24%
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on May 10? May 11 $41 +$9 +21%
Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on May 11? May 10 $40 −$40 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on May 11? May 10 $13 −$13 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 16°C on May 9? May 10 $43 +$7 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 19°C on May 9? May 09 $5 −$5 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 32¢ $49 1h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 9h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 10h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 24¢ $2 10h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 24¢ $0 11h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 49¢ $15 11h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 55¢ $28 12h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 60¢ $18 12h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $20 12h
Will Martin Ødegaard score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 69¢ $4 26h
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 43¢ $15 27h
Will France reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 60¢ $52 28h
Will France reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 60¢ $1 29h
Will France reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 60¢ $7 33h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 28¢ $14 35h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 72¢ $43 35h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 79¢ $32 38h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 57¢ $35 46h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 56¢ $28 46h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $74 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 40¢ $24 2d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 21¢ $15 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 51¢ $13 2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 65¢ $16 2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 80¢ $8 2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 80¢ $1 2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 45¢ $23 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $29 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 50¢ $13 2d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 54¢ $27 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $751.77 · official $751.87 (match) · 1645 history records