Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T23:15:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
2A 0x2a29…f194 sports 7 markets active 2h ago coverage 35d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL −$34 (-12%) realized −$32 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +5% what you keep after slip
Net edge+5%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate25%1W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$121now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 35d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 53% −$73
sports 29% +$64
other 18% −$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)+5.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +55.1% +40.3% 33% 33% -12.1%
≤30d 3 +55.1% +40.3% 33% 33% -12.1%
≤90d 4 +16.3% +5.2% 25% 25% -29.1%
all 4 +16.3% +5.2% 25% 25% -29.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +5.2% 25% -29.1%
10% -4.9% 25% -35.9%
15% -14.0% 25% -42.1%
20% -22.5% 25% -47.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +16% · $-wt -22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$93 vs −$42 · ×2.22 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

35d coverage
Net worth$121
Realized−$32
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses1 / 3
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions3
Markets (closed)4 / 7
History coverage35d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $74 $72 −$1 (-2%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Yes 40¢ 40¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Yes 36¢ 36¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 22 $26 +$93 +365%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 20 $74 −$72 -97%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 20 $25 −$25 -99%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 18 $30 −$29 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 25¢ $75 1h
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 36¢ $25 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 40¢ $25 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 12¢ $74 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $25 2d
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $26 2d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 42¢ $30 34d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $121.39 · official $121.39 (match) · 8 history records