Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T08:08:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
2A 0x2a27…981d politics 6 markets active 2h ago coverage 109d
RISKYcopy with care politics specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$10 (+1%) realized +$10 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate67%4W / 2L
Drawdown3%max
Avg bet$148per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days+$4
14 days+$4
30 days+$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 69% +$6
world 31% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-8.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +2.3% -7.5% 100% 0% -7.5%
≤30d 2 +2.1% -7.6% 100% 0% -7.6%
≤90d 5 +1.3% -8.3% 80% 0% -8.3%
all 6 +1.1% -8.5% 67% 0% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.5% 0% -8.5%
10% -17.3% 0% -17.3%
15% -25.3% 0% -25.2%
20% -32.6% 0% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 66% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$0 · ×18.77 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×37.54 per $1 lost it wins $37.54
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

109d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses4 / 2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)6 / 6
History coverage109d
Avg bet$148
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown3%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 6 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 27 $162 +$4 +2%
Trump out as President by May 31? May 30 $158 +$3 +2%
Trump out as President by April 30? Apr 29 $155 +$3 +2%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 04 $155 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? Apr 04 $111 +$1 +1%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 16 $150 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $165 1h
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $162 27d
Trump out as President by May 31? SELL No 100¢ $161 28d
Trump out as President by May 31? BUY No 98¢ $158 58d
Trump out as President by April 30? SELL No 100¢ $158 58d
Trump out as President by April 30? BUY No 98¢ $155 83d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $43 84d
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $111 98d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $111 98d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $155 103d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $150 103d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $150 109d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 39 history records