Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T22:21:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
2A 0x2a26…ccc0 other 17 markets active 2h ago coverage 88d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$1,760 (+126%) realized +$1,850 · open −$90
Gross ROI / mkt +102% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +83% what you keep after slip
Net edge+83%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate27%4W / 11L
Drawdown24%max
Avg bet$82per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit41%portable
Net worth$222now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$54
7 days−$54
14 days−$54
30 days−$54
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 43% +$2,088
other 41% −$114
crypto 9% −$125
sports 7% −$101
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)+83.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +25.8% +13.8% 17% 17% -50.9%
≤30d 6 +25.8% +13.8% 17% 17% -50.9%
≤90d 15 +102.3% +83.0% 27% 27% +152.1%
all 15 +102.3% +83.0% 27% 27% +152.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +83.0% 27% +152.1%
10% +65.5% 27% +128.0%
15% +49.5% 27% +105.9%
20% +34.9% 20% +85.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 92% · top 2 97% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +179% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +102% · $-wt +179% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +206% → late +12% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$642 vs −$66 · ×9.66 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.51 per $1 lost it wins $3.51
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

88d coverage
Net worth$222
Realized+$1,850
Unrealized−$90
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses4 / 11
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)15 / 17
History coverage88d
Avg bet$82
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown24%
Kalshi-fit41%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 15 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $311 $222 −$90 (-29%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 3 France? Jun 26 $26 +$56 +217%
Kylian Mbappé: 3+ goals Jun 26 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 3 France? Jun 26 $26 −$25 -97%
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 2 France? Jun 26 $26 −$25 -97%
Exact Score: Norway 0 - 3 France? Jun 26 $26 −$25 -97%
Exact Score: Norway 0 - 2 France? Jun 26 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET May 04 $32 −$30 -94%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-14? May 03 $80 +$30 +38%
Will FC Bayern München vs. Real Madrid CF end in a draw? Apr 15 $100 −$99 -99%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-14? Apr 14 $10 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Apr 13 $100 −$95 -95%
Will FC Barcelona vs. RCD Espanyol de Barcelona end in a draw? Apr 11 $2 −$2 -97%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? Apr 08 $26 +$128 +488%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Apr 08 $395 −$395 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 08 $174 +$2,355 +1357%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 3 France? SELL Yes 39¢ $79 1h
Kylian Mbappé: 3+ goals BUY Yes 10¢ $10 3h
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals AND Erling Haaland: 2+ goals BUY $15 8h
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 3 France? BUY Yes $26 8h
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 3 France? BUY Yes $26 8h
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 2 France? BUY Yes 12¢ $26 8h
Exact Score: Norway 0 - 3 France? BUY Yes $26 8h
Exact Score: Norway 0 - 2 France? BUY Yes $26 8h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $50 2d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $127 11d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $144 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $32 53d
Will FC Bayern München vs. Real Madrid CF end in a draw? BUY Yes 77¢ $100 72d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-14? BUY Yes 70¢ $10 73d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-14? BUY Yes 71¢ $20 73d
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-14? SELL Yes 10¢ $0 73d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-14? BUY Yes 73¢ $50 73d
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-14? SELL Yes 11¢ $10 73d
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-14? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 73d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $100 74d
Will FC Barcelona vs. RCD Espanyol de Barcelona end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 76d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? SELL Yes 100¢ $2,528 79d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? BUY Yes 13¢ $46 80d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? BUY Yes 17¢ $26 81d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? BUY Yes $50 81d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? BUY Yes $77 86d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? BUY Yes $1 86d
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? BUY Yes $197 88d
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? BUY Yes $198 88d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $221.50 · official $221.50 (match) · 43 history records