Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T10:17:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
2A 0x2a25…8055 sports 505 markets active 1h ago coverage 35d ⚠
BOTnot copyable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 34d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (52 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$8,552 (+8%) realized +$13,557 · open −$5,005
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate52%218W / 201L
Whale WR93%big bets
Drawdown12%max
Avg bet$209per market
Trades / day52.2pace
Fees−$1,021est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$5,485now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 35d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 88% +$27,310
other 11% −$5,802
world 0% −$113
politics 0% −$42
weather 0% −$107
economics 0% +$54
crypto 0% −$14
tech 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (52 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)+6.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 +53.1% +38.5% 97% 97% +28.7%
≤30d 155 +53.1% +38.5% 81% 78% +21.7%
≤90d 419 +17.3% +6.1% 52% 46% +19.2%
all 419 +17.3% +6.1% 52% 46% +19.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover52.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +6.1% 46% +19.2%
10% ← realistic here -4.0% 42% +7.8%
15% -13.3% 34% -2.6%
20% -21.8% 23% -12.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +32% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +17% · $-wt +32% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 93% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -3% → late +37% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$150 vs −$35 · ×4.33 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.07 per $1 lost it wins $5.07
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

35d coverage
Net worth$5,485
Realized+$13,557
Unrealized−$5,005
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses218 / 201
Whale WR (big bets)93%
Est. fees paid−$1,021
Open positions500
Markets (closed)419 / 505
History coverage35d ⚠
Avg bet$209
Trades / day52.2
Drawdown12%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 500 History 419 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Spirit 75¢ 76¢ $370 $374 +$3 (+1%)
Will Republican House incumbents not win in between ten and twelve nominating elections in the 2026 cycle? Yes 17¢ 39¢ $93 $219 +$125 (+134%)
Will the Democratic Party win the RI-01 House seat? Yes 92¢ 94¢ $138 $142 +$4 (+3%)
Will the Republican Party win the AZ-09 House seat? Yes 88¢ 92¢ $99 $103 +$4 (+4%)
Will the Democratic Party win the LA-02 House seat? Yes 91¢ 93¢ $97 $98 +$2 (+2%)
Will the Republican Party win the MO-04 House seat? Yes 92¢ 92¢ $93 $93 +$1 (+1%)
Will the Republican Party win the IN-09 House seat? Yes 90¢ 92¢ $91 $93 +$3 (+3%)
Will the Republican Party win the OR-02 House seat? Yes 91¢ 92¢ $92 $92 +$1 (+1%)
Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to no prison time? Yes 35¢ 37¢ $81 $86 +$5 (+7%)
Will the Republican Party win the TN-05 House seat? Yes 80¢ 76¢ $84 $80 −$4 (-5%)
Will Republican House incumbents not win in more than fifteen nominating elections in the 2026 cycle? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $84 $79 −$5 (-6%)
Will Chris Coons be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Delaware? Yes 95¢ 96¢ $71 $72 +$1 (+1%)
Will Republican House incumbents not win in between seven and nine nominating elections in the 2026 cycle? Yes 17¢ 44¢ $26 $68 +$42 (+163%)
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes 8¢ 81¢ $6 $63 +$57 (+958%)
Will the Republican Party win the AL-06 House seat? Yes 91¢ 90¢ $59 $58 −$0 (-1%)
Will Platforma Reupblicana “Nô Kumpu Guiné” win the most seats in the 2025 Guinea-Bissau National People’s Assembly election? Yes 24¢ 40¢ $35 $57 +$22 (+63%)
Will the Democratic Party win the FL-15 House seat? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $56 $53 −$3 (-5%)
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs KT Rolster Challengers 29¢ 38¢ $41 $53 +$12 (+29%)
Will the Republican Party win the FL-12 House seat? Yes 90¢ 77¢ $62 $53 −$9 (-14%)
Will Raymond McKay be the Republican nominee for Senate in Rhode Island? Yes 86¢ 85¢ $48 $48 −$1 (-1%)
Will the Democrats win the Michigan governor race in 2026? Yes 67¢ 82¢ $38 $47 +$9 (+23%)
Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 4.0% and 5.0%? Yes 6¢ 78¢ $4 $46 +$43 (+1200%)
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026? Yes 63¢ 45¢ $63 $45 −$18 (-29%)
Will the Democratic Party win the GA-12 House seat? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $43 $42 −$1 (-3%)
Will the Republican Party win the NC-05 House seat? Yes 88¢ 88¢ $37 $37 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $2,831 +$1,049 +37%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $279 −$4 -1%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo Jun 17 $1,320 +$680 +52%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $2,065 +$484 +24%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $508 +$221 +43%
Will ICEMAN be No.1 for 4 weeks or more? Jun 16 $3 +$4 +111%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo Jun 15 $303 +$222 +73%
Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 15 $406 +$222 +55%
Game Handicap: KT.C (-1.5) vs Top Esports Challenger (+1.5) Jun 15 $290 +$102 +35%
Game Handicap: KT.C (-1.5) vs Saigon Warriors (+1.5) Jun 15 $65 +$34 +52%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $580 +$253 +44%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $201 +$46 +23%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 15 $238 +$205 +86%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 14 $2,102 +$521 +25%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London Jun 14 $253 +$209 +83%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $444 +$212 +48%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $295 +$205 +70%
Game Handicap: GEN (-2.5) vs T1 (+2.5) Jun 14 $682 +$221 +32%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $319 +$231 +72%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $509 +$1,007 +198%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $631 +$414 +66%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $1,237 +$353 +28%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $1,436 +$453 +32%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 13 $433 +$530 +122%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $1,018 +$295 +29%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $528 +$209 +40%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $207 +$93 +45%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $1,734 +$392 +23%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $522 +$227 +44%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pla Jun 12 $1,522 +$521 +34%
Game Handicap: T1 (-1.5) vs Hanwha Life Esports (+1.5) Jun 12 $433 +$217 +50%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $379 +$123 +32%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $614 +$210 +34%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $569 +$284 +50%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $411 +$289 +70%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $1,402 +$765 +55%
LoL: E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS vs HMBLE (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group A Jun 11 $357 +$156 +44%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Forsaken (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group B Jun 11 $200 +$83 +42%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Forsaken - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $257 +$153 +60%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $886 +$302 +34%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $4,695 +$956 +20%
Spread: Knicks (-4.5) Jun 11 $295 +$199 +67%
LoL: UCAM Esports Club vs HMBLE (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group A Jun 10 $451 +$92 +20%
Map Handicap: NRG (-1.5) vs FUT Esports (+1.5) Jun 10 $374 +$187 +50%
LoL: Misa Esports vs E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS - Game 2 Winner Jun 10 $346 +$95 +27%
LoL: Misa Esports vs E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS - Game 1 Winner Jun 10 $346 +$95 +27%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Saigon Dino (BO3) - Asia Masters Group C Jun 10 $68 +$4 +6%
Map Handicap: GE (-1.5) vs FULL SENSE (+1.5) Jun 09 $360 +$140 +39%
Valorant: Global Esports vs FULL SENSE - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $153 +$144 +94%
Valorant: Dragon Ranger Gaming vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters Londo Jun 09 $1,545 +$631 +41%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff BUY KT Rolster Challengers 29¢ $11 54m
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff BUY KT Rolster Challengers 29¢ $1 55m
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff BUY KT Rolster Challengers 29¢ $29 55m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 75¢ $300 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 70¢ $28 17h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 73¢ $508 17h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 73¢ $54 17h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 73¢ $541 17h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 73¢ $541 17h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 73¢ $541 17h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 73¢ $146 17h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 73¢ $473 17h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Aurora Gaming 55¢ $14 20h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Aurora Gaming 55¢ $200 20h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Aurora Gaming 55¢ $5 20h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Aurora Gaming 55¢ $6 20h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Aurora Gaming 55¢ $50 20h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 4 Winne BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 38¢ $310 21h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 4 Winne BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 38¢ $55 21h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 4 Winne BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 38¢ $9 21h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 4 Winne BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 38¢ $3 21h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 4 Winne BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 38¢ $0 21h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 4 Winne BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 38¢ $2 21h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 3 Winne BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 4¢ $43 21h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 2 Winne BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 10¢ $66 22h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 2 Winne BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 10¢ $3 22h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 2 Winne BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 10¢ $16 22h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 2 Winne BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 10¢ $8 22h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 2 Winne BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 10¢ $0 22h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 2 Winne BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 10¢ $0 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,485.44 · official $5,578.57 · 3500 history records