Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T21:12:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
2A 0x2a25…4e62 sports 1760 markets active 0h ago coverage 91d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 90d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$193 (+1%) realized +$193 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate51%834W / 817L
Drawdown54%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day24.7pace
Fees−$84est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$37now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$56
7 days+$60
14 days+$913
30 days+$919
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 43% −$36
crypto 34% +$766
other 22% +$31
world 0% −$16
finance 0% −$14
politics 0% +$4
culture 0% +$24
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-7.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 148 +9.4% -1.0% 53% 50% -0.4%
≤30d 635 +15.5% +4.5% 52% 49% +3.0%
≤90d 1651 +2.5% -7.3% 51% 46% -5.4%
all 1651 +2.5% -7.3% 51% 46% -5.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.3% 46% -5.4%
10% ← realistic here -16.1% 43% -14.5%
15% -24.2% 39% -22.8%
20% -31.7% 35% -30.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$6 · ×1.12 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.15 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

91d coverage
Net worth$37
Realized+$193
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses834 / 817
Est. fees paid−$84
Open positions4
Markets (closed)1651 / 1760
History coverage91d ⚠
Avg bet$8
Trades / day24.7
Drawdown54%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 1651 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Carlos Álvarez win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 70¢ 100¢ $8 $11 +$3 (+43%)
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 7.5 Over 55¢ 74¢ $8 $11 +$3 (+34%)
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 83¢ 100¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+20%)
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 7.5 Under 47¢ 26¢ $8 $4 −$3 (-44%)
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5) Arizona Diamondbacks 62¢ 55¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 495 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 29 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 29 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 29 $3 +$5 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 29 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 29 $3 +$4 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 29 $3 +$4 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 29 $3 +$2 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 29 $3 +$3 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 29 $3 +$3 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 29 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 29 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 29 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 29 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 29 $3 +$3 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 29 $3 +$4 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 29 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 29 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 29 $3 +$3 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 29 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 29 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 29 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 29 $3 +$5 +159%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 29 $3 +$4 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 29 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 29 $3 +$2 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 29 $3 +$2 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 29 $3 +$3 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 29 $3 +$3 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 29 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 29 $3 +$3 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 29 $3 +$6 +190%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 28 $3 +$6 +173%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 28 $3 +$2 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 28 $3 +$5 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 28 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 28 $3 +$3 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 28 $3 +$2 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 28 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 28 $3 +$3 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 28 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 28 $3 +$4 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 28 $3 +$3 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 28 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 28 $3 +$4 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 28 $3 +$4 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 28 $3 +$7 +228%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 27 $3 +$4 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 27 $3 +$4 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 27 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 27 $3 +$2 +79%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $3 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $3 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $3 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $3 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $3 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $3 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $3 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $3 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $3 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $3 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $3 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $3 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $3 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $3 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $3 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $3 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $37.05 · official $37.05 (match) · 3500 history records