Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T16:48:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2A 0x2a23…54f1 crypto 32 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (77 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$22 (+2%) realized +$22 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate75%24W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day77.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$31
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (77 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-13.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 -4.4% -13.5% 75% 38% -12.6%
≤30d 32 -4.4% -13.5% 75% 38% -12.6%
≤90d 32 -4.4% -13.5% 75% 38% -12.6%
all 32 -4.4% -13.5% 75% 38% -12.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover77.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.5% 38% -12.6%
10% ← realistic here -21.8% 19% -20.9%
15% -29.3% 6% -28.6%
20% -36.3% 6% -35.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
46% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -12% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$16 · ×0.25 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$22
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses24 / 8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)32 / 32
History coverage1d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day77.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 32 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 15 $28 −$28 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 15 $15 −$15 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 15 $42 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $42 +$1 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 15 $22 −$8 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 15 $46 −$7 -16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$3 +33%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 15 $20 +$3 +17%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 15 $15 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 15 $50 +$7 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 15 $15 +$4 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 15 $35 +$3 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 15 $30 +$9 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 15 $34 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 15 $15 +$3 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 15 $15 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $20 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 15 $15 +$10 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 15 $17 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $25 −$8 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 15 $60 −$35 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $40 +$3 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 15 $48 +$9 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 15 $55 +$13 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 15 $20 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $21 +$11 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 15 $40 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 15 $30 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 15 $55 +$6 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $18 40m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $5 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $10 41m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $10 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $42 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $1 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $10 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $10 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $10 50m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $10 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $10 52m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $12 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $30 55m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $10 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $15 56m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $10 59m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $10 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $10 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 130 history records