Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:31:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2A 0x2a20…b3e2 crypto 214 markets active 4d ago coverage 143d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$82 (-3%) realized −$82 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate69%147W / 67L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day4.3pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$25
14 days−$25
30 days−$27
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$74
other 1% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-14.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 97 -4.9% -13.9% 70% 37% -14.5%
≤30d 99 -6.8% -15.7% 69% 36% -14.8%
≤90d 105 -7.7% -16.5% 68% 37% -14.9%
all 214 -5.2% -14.2% 69% 42% -12.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.2% 42% -12.1%
10% -22.4% 25% -20.5%
15% -29.9% 12% -28.2%
20% -36.8% 7% -35.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
37% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$5 · ×0.35 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

143d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$82
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses147 / 67
Open positions0
Markets (closed)214 / 214
History coverage143d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day4.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 214 Trades
no open positions (32 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $13 −$13 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 12 $3 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 12 $6 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$2 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$2 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 12 $11 +$2 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 12 $7 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 12 $3 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 12 $11 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 12 $6 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 12 $6 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 12 $18 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 12 $6 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 12 $15 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 12 $6 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 12 $6 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 12 $12 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 12 $19 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 12 $13 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 12 $19 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 12 $3 $0 -8%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $5 +$8 +158%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 32¢ $3 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET SELL Down 2¢ $0 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET SELL Down 22¢ $0 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET SELL Down 61¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET SELL Down 85¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET SELL Down 85¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $8 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET SELL Up 90¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET SELL Down 14¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET SELL Down 85¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET SELL Down 91¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET SELL Up 19¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET SELL Down 72¢ $2 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 676 history records