Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T10:53:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0

score

2A 0x2a1f…c124 other 17 markets active 2h ago coverage 147d

TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$452 (+12%) realized +$451 · open +$1

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip

Net edge-10%after slip

Net WR33%break-even

Win rate60%9W / 6L

Drawdown10%max

Avg bet$222per market

Trades / day0.2pace

Fees−$7est.

Kalshi-fit65%portable

Net worth$61now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days$0

7 days$0

14 days$0

30 days+$21

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +33%

net ROI/market (all)-9.5%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	no closed markets
≤30d	3	+25.9%	+13.9%	100%	67%	+14.1%
≤90d	15	+0.0%	-9.5%	60%	33%	+0.3%
all	15	+0.0%	-9.5%	60%	33%	+0.3%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.2 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-9.5%	33%	+0.3%
10%	-18.1%	27%	-9.3%
15%	-26.1%	13%	-18.1%
20%	-33.3%	7%	-26.1%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 95% · top 2 98% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

44% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +0% · $-wt +11% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -22% → late +19% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$51 vs −$9 · ×5.44 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×8.15 per $1 lost it wins $8.15

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

147d coverage

Net worth$61

Realized+$451

Unrealized+$1

Win rate (resolved)60%

Wins / losses9 / 6

Est. fees paid−$7

Open positions2

Markets (closed)15 / 17

History coverage147d

Avg bet$222

Trades / day0.2

Drawdown10%

Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 15 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	18¢	18¢	$30	$31	+$1 (+4%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	22¢	22¢	$30	$30	−$0 (-0%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in May?	Jun 03	$20	+$5	+24%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?	Jun 03	$30	+$3	+10%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?	Jun 03	$30	+$13	+44%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	May 25	$1,200	−$41	-3%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 217.5	May 24	$507	+$436	+86%
Will BP be acquired before 2027?	May 22	$3	$0	-3%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet	May 22	$100	−$3	-3%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me	May 22	$1,805	−$2	-0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on April 18?	Apr 17	$8	−$8	-97%
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 on March 31?	Apr 17	$2	$0	+2%
Bucharest Open: Sebastian Baez vs Vilius Gaubas	Apr 17	$2	$0	+24%
EdgeX FDV above $300M one day after launch?	Apr 17	$3	$0	+2%
Will the government shutdown last 1 day or more?	Apr 17	$3	$0	+14%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	Apr 17	$4	$0	+5%
Will Niger win on 2026-03-31?	Mar 31	$2	−$2	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	18¢	$31	1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	22¢	$31	1h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?	BUY No	69¢	$30	33d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in May?	BUY Yes	80¢	$20	33d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?	BUY No	91¢	$30	33d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	SELL Yes	15¢	$232	33d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	SELL Yes	15¢	$98	33d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	SELL Yes	15¢	$198	33d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	SELL Yes	15¢	$56	33d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	SELL Yes	15¢	$54	33d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	SELL Yes	15¢	$67	33d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	SELL Yes	15¢	$455	33d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	BUY Yes	15¢	$1,023	34d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	BUY Yes	15¢	$177	34d
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 217.5	BUY Over	53¢	$507	35d
Will BP be acquired before 2027?	SELL No	88¢	$3	35d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet	SELL Yes	92¢	$97	35d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me	SELL No	100¢	$904	35d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me	BUY No	100¢	$905	38d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me	SELL No	100¢	$899	38d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet	BUY Yes	94¢	$100	40d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me	BUY No	100¢	$900	40d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on April 18?	BUY Yes	31¢	$8	70d
Will Niger win on 2026-03-31?	BUY Yes	83¢	$2	87d
Bucharest Open: Sebastian Baez vs Vilius Gaubas	BUY Sebastian Baez	80¢	$2	87d
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 on March 31?	BUY No	98¢	$2	87d
EdgeX FDV above $300M one day after launch?	BUY Yes	98¢	$3	87d
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	BUY Yes	96¢	$4	137d
Will BP be acquired before 2027?	BUY No	90¢	$3	147d
Will the government shutdown last 1 day or more?	BUY Yes	88¢	$3	147d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $61.20 · official $61.20 (match) · 40 history records