Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T22:45:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2A
0x2a1c…d9cf
other · 375 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$507 -3%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$444 · open −$63
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$502
Realized−$444
Unrealized−$63
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses231 / 100
Est. fees paid−$18
Open positions44
Markets (closed)331 / 375
History coverage73d
Avg bet$46
Trades / day32.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit40%
Chart Positions 44 History 331 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$20
7 days+$43
14 days+$148
30 days+$96
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will MrBeast's next video get between 20 and 25 million views on day 1? No 90¢ 100¢ $45 $50 +$5 (+11%)
Will MrBeast's next video get between 45 and 50 million views on day 1? No 87¢ 100¢ $41 $46 +$6 (+14%)
Will MrBeast's next video get between 35 and 40 million views on day 1? No 85¢ 82¢ $42 $41 −$1 (-2%)
GTA 6 launch postponed again? No 79¢ 80¢ $32 $32 +$0 (+0%)
100m views on a MrBeast video in the first week by June 30? No 80¢ 97¢ $24 $29 +$5 (+22%)
Will MrBeast's next video get 90 million or more views on week 1? No 84¢ 92¢ $25 $28 +$2 (+10%)
Will Lighter reach $3 before 2027? Yes 34¢ 30¢ $26 $22 −$4 (-14%)
Will Hyperliquid dip to $12 by December 31, 2026? No 90¢ 92¢ $18 $18 +$0 (+2%)
No one announced as next James Bond? Yes 67¢ 87¢ $10 $13 +$3 (+29%)
Will Zcash dip to $100 by December 31, 2026? No 69¢ 75¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+8%)
Will Zcash reach $700 by December 31, 2026? Yes 29¢ 26¢ $12 $10 −$1 (-10%)
Will MrBeast's next video get less than 20 million views on day 1? No 93¢ 100¢ $9 $10 +$1 (+7%)
Will MrBeast's next video get less than 40 million views on week 1? No 98¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Will Zcash dip to $50 by December 31, 2026? No 80¢ 88¢ $9 $10 +$1 (+10%)
Callum Turner announced as next James Bond? No 88¢ 94¢ $9 $9 +$1 (+6%)
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? No 90¢ 93¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+2%)
Kash Patel out by June 30? No 41¢ 92¢ $4 $9 +$5 (+126%)
Exact Score: Any Other Score? No 86¢ 92¢ $9 $9 +$1 (+7%)
Will MrBeast's next video get between 25 and 30 million views on day 1? No 88¢ 92¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+4%)
Modi out by December 31, 2026? No 91¢ 91¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-1%)
Will "Obsession" 5th Weekend Box Office be greater than 19m? Yes 81¢ 88¢ $8 $9 +$1 (+9%)
Variational FDV above $300M one day after launch? Yes 87¢ 88¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+1%)
Will Hyperliquid dip to $16 by December 31, 2026? No 89¢ 86¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-3%)
Will Waymo operate in 11 cities on June 30 2026? No 88¢ 78¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-12%)
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 39m and 43m? No 85¢ 85¢ $8 $9 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 1 Switzerland? Jun 13 $3 +$3 +112%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 50 and 60 million views on week Jun 13 $25 +$3 +10%
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -99%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $54 +$15 +28%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $4 +$6 +170%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $7 +$3 +45%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 South Africa? Jun 11 $3 +$6 +208%
Ben Pasternak jailed? Jun 09 $144 +$3 +2%
Will India win? Jun 08 $26 +$4 +14%
Will "Obsession" 4th Weekend Box Office be between 24m and 27m? Jun 08 $7 +$3 +38%
Will "Obsession" 4th Weekend Box Office be between 21m and 24m? Jun 08 $10 +$7 +74%
Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $2.0T at market close on IPO Jun 06 $4 −$4 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get 64 million or more views in week 1? Jun 06 $24 −$24 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 63 and 63.5 million views in wee Jun 06 $132 +$28 +21%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 62.5 and 63 million views in wee Jun 05 $62 +$6 +10%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? Jun 05 $8 +$1 +15%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 62 and 63 million views on day 6 Jun 05 $28 +$2 +5%
Will MrBeast's next video get less than 60 million views on day 6? Jun 05 $58 +$2 +4%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 57 and 58 million views on day 5 Jun 04 $47 +$3 +6%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 53 and 54 million views on day 4 Jun 03 $221 +$51 +23%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 50 and 60 million views on week Jun 02 $22 +$1 +6%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 48 and 49 million views on day 3 Jun 02 $27 +$3 +11%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 49 and 50 million views on day 3 Jun 02 $54 +$6 +11%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $25 −$1 -4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 01 $16 +$4 +26%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $8 +$2 +22%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $38 in May? Jun 01 $1 +$9 +614%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? Jun 01 $14 +$6 +38%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in May? Jun 01 $9 +$1 +12%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31? Jun 01 $9 +$1 +16%
Will Waymo operate in 12 or more cities on June 30 2026? Jun 01 $21 +$6 +31%
Will MrBeast's next video get less than 20 million views on day 1? May 31 $38 +$2 +4%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 20 and 25 million views on day 1 May 30 $8 −$8 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May? May 29 $9 +$1 +13%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May? May 29 $9 +$1 +11%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $192 in May? May 29 $14 +$6 +46%
Will Sunrisers Hyderabad win the 2026 Indian Premier League? May 25 $1 −$1 -98%
Will MrBeast's video get less than 66 million views on week 1? May 23 $8 +$2 +18%
Will MrBeast's video get between 66 and 67 million views on week 1? May 23 $114 −$70 -61%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Royal Challengers Bengal May 22 $5 +$5 +108%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 62 and 63 million views on day 6 May 22 $63 +$27 +43%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week May 22 $13 −$13 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get less than 61 million views on day 6? May 22 $19 +$4 +20%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Chennai Super Kings May 21 $13 +$7 +54%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 61 and 62 million views on day 6 May 21 $18 −$18 -100%
Kash Patel out by May 31? May 21 $16 +$3 +20%
Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman? May 21 $6 +$4 +57%
Will Hyperliquid reach $62 by December 31, 2026? May 21 $5 +$15 +270%
Will Hyperliquid reach $58 by December 31, 2026? May 21 $9 +$7 +80%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 70% −$765
sports 17% +$50
culture 7% +$156
crypto 2% −$17
finance 2% +$47
world 0% +$10
tech 0% +$9
politics 0% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 11m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 86¢ $4 18m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 86¢ $4 19m
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $3 35m
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 1 Switzerland? SELL No 100¢ $6 1h
Will MrBeast's next video get 90 million or more views on week 1? BUY No 88¢ $9 1h
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 1 Switzerland? BUY No 47¢ $3 1h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 25 and 30 million views on day 1 BUY No 88¢ $9 2h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 35 and 40 million views on day 1 BUY No 80¢ $8 2h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 35 and 40 million views on day 1 BUY No 82¢ $8 3h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 35 and 40 million views on day 1 BUY No 84¢ $8 3h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 35 and 40 million views on day 1 BUY No 88¢ $5 3h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 50 and 60 million views on week SELL No 93¢ $28 3h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 35 and 40 million views on day 1 BUY No 88¢ $4 3h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 35 and 40 million views on day 1 BUY No 89¢ $9 3h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 20 and 25 million views on day 1 BUY No 90¢ $4 3h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 25 and 30 million views on day 1 SELL No 78¢ $8 4h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 20 and 25 million views on day 1 BUY No 90¢ $2 4h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 20 and 25 million views on day 1 BUY No 90¢ $3 4h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 20 and 25 million views on day 1 BUY No 92¢ $9 4h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 20 and 25 million views on day 1 BUY No 94¢ $6 4h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 45 and 50 million views on day 1 BUY No 85¢ $6 5h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 25 and 30 million views on day 1 BUY No 87¢ $9 5h
Will MrBeast's next video get less than 40 million views on week 1? BUY No 98¢ $10 5h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 20 and 25 million views on day 1 BUY No 94¢ $2 6h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 20 and 25 million views on day 1 BUY No 94¢ $2 6h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 45 and 50 million views on day 1 BUY No 86¢ $9 8h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 45 and 50 million views on day 1 BUY No 87¢ $9 9h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 45 and 50 million views on day 1 BUY No 88¢ $8 10h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 45 and 50 million views on day 1 BUY No 88¢ $1 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +41.8% +28.3% 83% 67% +3.9%
≤30d 56 +21.1% +9.5% 77% 61% +1.0%
≤90d 331 -1.7% -11.1% 70% 43% -11.6%
all 331 -1.7% -11.1% 70% 43% -11.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover32.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.1% 43% -11.6%
10% ← realistic here -19.6% 25% -20.1%
15% -27.4% 18% -27.8%
20% -34.5% 12% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $502.17 · official $502.47 (match) · 2511 history records