Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T10:46:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
2A 0x2a17…969b other 19 markets active 1h ago coverage 77d
RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$400 (+11%) realized +$400 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +75% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +58% what you keep after slip
Net edge+58%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate42%8W / 11L
Drawdown79%max
Avg bet$188per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$3
14 days+$787
30 days+$815
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 50% −$398
world 29% +$3
other 19% +$788
politics 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)+58.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +3.5% -6.4% 50% 0% -6.7%
≤30d 7 +259.0% +224.8% 57% 14% +44.4%
≤90d 19 +74.8% +58.2% 42% 5% -2.5%
all 19 +74.8% +58.2% 42% 5% -2.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +58.2% 5% -2.5%
10% +43.0% 5% -11.8%
15% +29.2% 5% -20.3%
20% +16.6% 5% -28.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 93% · top 2 96% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +75% · $-wt +11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -33% → late +172% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$124 vs −$67 · ×1.85 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.65 per $1 lost it wins $1.65
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

77d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$400
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses8 / 11
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions0
Markets (closed)19 / 19
History coverage77d
Avg bet$188
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown79%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 19 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the U.S. invade Colombia in 2026? Jun 22 $46 +$3 +7%
Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 30? Jun 22 $55 $0 +0%
Game 1: Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor? Jun 14 $74 −$74 -100%
Game 1: Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor? Jun 13 $72 −$71 -99%
Game 1: Any Player Rampage? Jun 13 $41 +$929 +2281%
Spread: Qingdao Hainiu FC (-2.5) May 25 $443 +$27 +6%
Will any country leave NATO by December 31, 2026? May 24 $446 $0 +0%
Spread: Al Fateh Saudi Club (-2.5) May 21 $80 −$80 -100%
Will Venezuela become 51st state? May 21 $43 +$3 +7%
Milei out as President of Argentina before 2027? May 21 $38 −$1 -4%
OPEC dissolves in 2026? May 21 $44 $0 +0%
Spread: Gwangju FC (-1.5) May 19 $490 +$10 +2%
Will Russia enter Dobropillia by May 31? May 12 $489 $0 -0%
Spread: Western Sydney Wanderers FC (-2.5) Apr 26 $408 +$21 +5%
Will Germany recognize Palestine before 2027? Apr 25 $407 +$1 +0%
Spread: SC Braga (-1.5) Apr 16 $335 −$334 -100%
Spread: Central Coast Mariners FC (-1.5) Apr 07 $19 −$19 -100%
Spread: Jaguares de Córdoba FC (-1.5) Apr 07 $23 −$23 -100%
Will the US strike 15 or more countries in 2026? Apr 06 $12 $0 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the U.S. invade Colombia in 2026? SELL Yes $25 37m
Will the U.S. invade Colombia in 2026? SELL Yes $24 38m
Will the U.S. invade Colombia in 2026? BUY Yes $22 1h
Will the U.S. invade Colombia in 2026? BUY Yes $23 1h
Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 30? SELL Yes $28 1h
Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 30? SELL Yes $27 1h
Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 30? BUY Yes $27 2h
Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 30? BUY Yes $28 2h
Game 1: Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor? BUY Yes $32 8d
Game 1: Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor? BUY Yes $42 8d
Game 1: Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor? BUY Yes $36 9d
Game 1: Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor? BUY Yes $36 9d
Game 1: Any Player Rampage? BUY Yes $21 12d
Game 1: Any Player Rampage? BUY Yes $20 12d
Spread: Qingdao Hainiu FC (-2.5) BUY Chongqing Tonglianglong FC 94¢ $443 29d
Will any country leave NATO by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $19 29d
Will any country leave NATO by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $428 29d
Will any country leave NATO by December 31, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $446 29d
Spread: Al Fateh Saudi Club (-2.5) BUY Al Fateh Saudi Club $0 32d
Spread: Al Fateh Saudi Club (-2.5) BUY Al Fateh Saudi Club $38 32d
Spread: Al Fateh Saudi Club (-2.5) BUY Al Fateh Saudi Club $42 32d
Will Venezuela become 51st state? SELL Yes $22 32d
Will Venezuela become 51st state? SELL Yes $24 32d
Will Venezuela become 51st state? BUY Yes $22 32d
Will Venezuela become 51st state? BUY Yes $21 32d
Milei out as President of Argentina before 2027? SELL Yes $37 32d
OPEC dissolves in 2026? SELL Yes $44 32d
Milei out as President of Argentina before 2027? BUY Yes $38 32d
OPEC dissolves in 2026? BUY Yes $44 32d
Spread: Gwangju FC (-1.5) BUY FC Seoul 98¢ $490 41d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 51 history records