Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T04:48:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
2A 0x2a17…ad3b other 8 markets active 1h ago coverage 692d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$294 (+19%) realized +$370 · open −$76
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +31% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +18% what you keep after slip
Net edge+18%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%3W / 3L
Drawdown73%max
Avg bet$190per market
Trades / day0.0pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit25%portable
Net worth$124now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$49
7 days−$21
14 days−$21
30 days−$21
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 76% −$569
politics 17% +$944
sports 7% −$110
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+18.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -9.5% -18.1% 67% 67% -14.8%
≤30d 3 -9.5% -18.1% 67% 67% -14.8%
≤90d 3 -9.5% -18.1% 67% 67% -14.8%
all 6 +30.9% +18.5% 50% 50% +14.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +18.5% 50% +14.0%
10% +7.1% 50% +3.1%
15% -3.2% 33% -6.9%
20% -12.7% 17% -16.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 91% · top 2 96% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +31% · $-wt +26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$344 vs −$230 · ×1.49 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.49 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

692d coverage
Net worth$124
Realized+$370
Unrealized−$76
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses3 / 3
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)6 / 8
History coverage692d
Avg bet$190
Trades / day0.0
Drawdown73%
Kalshi-fit25%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 65¢ 64¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Yes 39¢ 10¢ $100 $24 −$76 (-76%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $153 +$49 +32%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $101 +$40 +40%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $113 −$110 -98%
Will no US x Venezuela military engagement occur in 2025? Dec 31 $400 −$400 -100%
U.S. anti-cartel strike/operation on foreign soil by December 31? Dec 31 $299 −$181 -61%
Will Edmundo González win the 2024 Venezuela presidential election? Aug 08 $252 +$944 +375%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $123.59 · official $123.59 (match) · 17 history records