Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T01:12:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
2A 0x2a0d…10c1 sports 54 markets active 2h ago coverage 30d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$341 (+18%) realized +$30 · open +$311
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate47%23W / 26L
Drawdown98%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$22est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1,043now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$14
7 days+$36
14 days+$73
30 days+$75
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$386
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-6.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 +4.5% -5.4% 47% 47% -5.7%
≤30d 49 +3.6% -6.2% 47% 45% -3.2%
≤90d 49 +3.6% -6.2% 47% 45% -3.2%
all 49 +3.6% -6.2% 47% 45% -3.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.2% 45% -3.2%
10% -15.2% 45% -12.5%
15% -23.4% 37% -21.0%
20% -30.9% 29% -28.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +21% → late -13% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$15 · ×1.35 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.19 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

30d coverage
Net worth$1,043
Realized+$30
Unrealized+$311
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses23 / 26
Est. fees paid−$22
Open positions5
Markets (closed)49 / 54
History coverage30d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown98%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 49 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Washington Mystics vs. Minnesota Lynx Minnesota Lynx 79¢ 87¢ $622 $689 +$66 (+11%)
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics Athletics 20¢ 84¢ $72 $300 +$228 (+319%)
Washington Mystics vs. Minnesota Lynx: O/U 168.5 Over 32¢ 55¢ $11 $19 +$8 (+70%)
Washington Mystics vs. Minnesota Lynx: O/U 167.5 Over 26¢ 34¢ $14 $18 +$4 (+31%)
Washington Mystics vs. Minnesota Lynx: O/U 170.5 Over 20¢ 26¢ $13 $17 +$4 (+32%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 21 $71 +$71 +101%
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees Jun 21 $80 −$79 -99%
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins Jun 21 $47 −$46 -98%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 11.5 Jun 21 $3 −$3 -98%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 21 $5 −$5 -99%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics Jun 20 $96 +$40 +42%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 166.5 Jun 20 $1 −$1 -98%
Spread: New York Liberty (-12.5) Jun 20 $26 +$15 +59%
Spread: New York Liberty (-13.5) Jun 20 $23 +$7 +29%
Spread: New York Liberty (-11.5) Jun 20 $16 +$8 +48%
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5 Jun 20 $12 +$7 +60%
Washington Mystics vs. New York Liberty Jun 20 $28 −$27 -98%
Toronto Tempo vs. Connecticut Sun Jun 20 $3 −$3 -97%
Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5) Jun 20 $4 +$2 +57%
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-3.5) Jun 20 $2 −$2 -98%
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers Jun 20 $29 −$5 -17%
Spread: Kansas City Royals (-2.5) Jun 19 $24 −$24 -98%
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 19 $7 −$7 -98%
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 11.5 Jun 19 $32 −$32 -98%
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-7.5) Jun 18 $2 +$2 +124%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Los Angeles Sparks: O/U 176.5 Jun 18 $29 +$36 +124%
New York Liberty vs. Chicago Sky Jun 18 $38 +$9 +23%
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 7.5 Jun 18 $32 +$45 +140%
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 8.5 Jun 18 $35 +$32 +93%
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 10.5 Jun 18 $3 −$3 -98%
Spread: Washington Mystics (-4.5) Jun 18 $70 −$70 -99%
Spread: Washington Mystics (-2.5) Jun 18 $35 −$35 -99%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 17 $6 +$40 +712%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 17 $36 +$30 +83%
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-2.5) Jun 17 $12 −$4 -32%
Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5) Jun 17 $9 −$2 -20%
Spread: Indiana Fever (-8.5) Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-3.5) Jun 16 $71 +$37 +52%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings: O/U 178.5 Jun 16 $6 +$3 +46%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 11 $36 +$10 +29%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets: O/U 9.5 Jun 11 $26 +$17 +65%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Seattle Storm Jun 11 $36 +$10 +27%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 6.5 Jun 01 $19 +$22 +114%
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-2.5) May 30 $3 −$3 -99%
Spread: Spurs (-8.5) May 29 $9 +$9 +97%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 219.5 May 29 $24 −$10 -44%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 29 $20 +$8 +42%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 225.5 May 29 $20 −$20 -98%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 222.5 May 29 $4 $0 -5%
Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates May 29 $7 −$1 -9%
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5) May 27 $8 −$2 -24%
Thunder vs. Spurs: 1H Moneyline May 25 $1 $0 -7%
Detroit Tigers vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 11.5 May 24 $1 −$1 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET May 23 $1 $0 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Washington Mystics vs. Minnesota Lynx BUY Minnesota Lynx 78¢ $104 1h
Washington Mystics vs. Minnesota Lynx BUY Minnesota Lynx 78¢ $104 1h
Washington Mystics vs. Minnesota Lynx BUY Minnesota Lynx 78¢ $104 1h
Washington Mystics vs. Minnesota Lynx BUY Minnesota Lynx 81¢ $108 1h
Washington Mystics vs. Minnesota Lynx BUY Minnesota Lynx 80¢ $107 1h
Washington Mystics vs. Minnesota Lynx BUY Minnesota Lynx 77¢ $101 1h
Washington Mystics vs. Minnesota Lynx: O/U 168.5 BUY Over 32¢ $11 2h
Washington Mystics vs. Minnesota Lynx: O/U 170.5 BUY Over 20¢ $13 2h
Washington Mystics vs. Minnesota Lynx: O/U 167.5 BUY Over 26¢ $14 2h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 20¢ $73 2h
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees 57¢ $80 7h
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Tampa Bay Rays 49¢ $71 7h
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins BUY San Francisco Giants 34¢ $47 7h
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 11.5 BUY Under 43¢ $3 7h
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Atlanta Braves 57¢ $5 7h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 70¢ $96 46h
Minnesota Lynx vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 166.5 BUY Over 40¢ $1 46h
Washington Mystics vs. New York Liberty BUY New York Liberty 41¢ $28 47h
Toronto Tempo vs. Connecticut Sun BUY Connecticut Sun 4¢ $3 47h
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-3.5) BUY Tampa Bay Rays 37¢ $2 2d
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 62¢ $12 2d
Spread: New York Liberty (-11.5) BUY Washington Mystics 67¢ $16 2d
Spread: New York Liberty (-13.5) BUY Washington Mystics 77¢ $23 2d
Spread: New York Liberty (-12.5) BUY Washington Mystics 62¢ $26 2d
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers SELL San Diego Padres 53¢ $24 2d
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers BUY San Diego Padres 62¢ $29 2d
Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5) BUY Chicago White Sox 63¢ $4 2d
Spread: Kansas City Royals (-2.5) BUY St. Louis Cardinals 30¢ $18 3d
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Philadelphia Phillies 16¢ $7 3d
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 11.5 BUY Over 47¢ $32 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,042.86 · official $1,042.86 (match) · 94 history records