Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:42:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
2A 0x2a0b…e52d other 11 markets active 0h ago coverage 6d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$640 (+9%) realized +$482 · open +$158
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%5W / 5L
Drawdown76%max
Avg bet$646per market
Trades / day4.3pace
Fees−$44est.
Kalshi-fit36%portable
Net worth$658now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 73% +$300
sports 27% +$718
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+1.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +12.1% +1.4% 50% 50% +3.0%
≤30d 10 +12.1% +1.4% 50% 50% +3.0%
≤90d 10 +12.1% +1.4% 50% 50% +3.0%
all 10 +12.1% +1.4% 50% 50% +3.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.4% 50% +3.0%
10% -8.3% 50% -6.9%
15% -17.1% 50% -15.9%
20% -25.3% 40% -24.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 74% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt +14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$544 vs −$372 · ×1.46 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.46 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$658
Realized+$482
Unrealized+$158
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses5 / 5
Est. fees paid−$44
Open positions1
Markets (closed)10 / 11
History coverage6d
Avg bet$646
Trades / day4.3
Drawdown76%
Kalshi-fit36%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Austria 46¢ 60¢ $500 $658 +$158 (+32%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $506 +$300 +59%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -97%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1,509 −$1,487 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $487 −$302 -62%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1,000 −$24 -2%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1,356 +$1,254 +92%
Korea Republic to win the second half? Jun 12 $589 +$766 +130%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Draw at halftime? Jun 12 $284 +$305 +107%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $634 −$45 -7%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $232 +$96 +41%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $806 15m
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 62¢ $506 29m
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 46¢ $305 1h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 46¢ $203 1h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 3¢ $4 46h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 50¢ $1,509 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 19¢ $288 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 16¢ $168 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 18¢ $199 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 80¢ $976 4d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $1,000 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 94¢ $2,610 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $4 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $1,353 5d
Korea Republic to win the second half? SELL Yes 99¢ $1,355 5d
Korea Republic to win the second half? BUY Yes 42¢ $589 5d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 99¢ $590 5d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 47¢ $284 5d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? SELL Yes 31¢ $284 5d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $306 5d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? SELL Yes 31¢ $305 5d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $328 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $328 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $232 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $657.61 · official $657.61 (match) · 24 history records