Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T04:52:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2A 0x2a0b…2500 sports 31 markets active 0h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$26 (+2%) realized +$33 · open −$7
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate47%14W / 16L
Drawdown21%max
Avg bet$50per market
Trades / day10.9pace
Fees−$26est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$8now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$128
7 days+$115
14 days+$121
30 days+$121
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 58% −$19
other 42% +$132
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 -3.0% -12.2% 43% 29% -1.6%
≤30d 30 -1.7% -11.0% 47% 30% -1.4%
≤90d 30 -1.7% -11.0% 47% 30% -1.4%
all 30 -1.7% -11.0% 47% 30% -1.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.0% 30% -1.4%
10% -19.5% 27% -10.8%
15% -27.3% 20% -19.4%
20% -34.4% 20% -27.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 62% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +9% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$7 · ×2.41 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.11 per $1 lost it wins $2.11
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$8
Realized+$33
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses14 / 16
Est. fees paid−$26
Open positions1
Markets (closed)30 / 31
History coverage8d
Avg bet$50
Trades / day10.9
Drawdown21%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 30 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Over 43¢ 22¢ $15 $7 −$7 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 3.5 Jun 27 $76 −$5 -6%
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 3.5 Jun 27 $26 −$12 -45%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $200 +$33 +16%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $204 +$110 +54%
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 1.5 Jun 27 $200 −$3 -2%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $24 −$8 -32%
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $10 −$9 -91%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $25 +$1 +2%
Norway vs. France: O/U 4.5 Jun 26 $16 +$13 +82%
Norway vs. France: O/U 5.5 Jun 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Jun 26 $10 −$1 -6%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $100 +$6 +6%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $5 +$5 +94%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $3 −$1 -20%
Paraguay vs. Australia: 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Jun 26 $6 −$6 -100%
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $97 $0 -0%
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 1 United States? Jun 26 $10 $0 -1%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $10 $0 -2%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $13 +$14 +109%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $102 $0 +0%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 3.5 Jun 24 $23 −$3 -14%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5 Jun 24 $25 −$25 -100%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $39 +$28 +71%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Canada? Jun 24 $10 +$2 +25%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $10 −$3 -33%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $10 +$10 +100%
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 1 - 1 Qatar? Jun 24 $20 +$2 +8%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $23 −$23 -99%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $17 +$4 +26%
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $15 +$1 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 60¢ $71 11m
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 61¢ $25 11m
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 62¢ $25 11m
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 64¢ $25 12m
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $15 20m
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 11¢ $14 22m
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 19¢ $26 25m
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? SELL No 12¢ $233 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 10¢ $190 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 10¢ $10 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? SELL No 62¢ $314 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 39¢ $204 1h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 25¢ $37 1h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 25¢ $38 1h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 25¢ $37 1h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 25¢ $37 1h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 25¢ $1 1h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 25¢ $34 1h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 25¢ $190 1h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 96¢ $7 2h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 96¢ $117 2h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 95¢ $47 2h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 95¢ $22 2h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 95¢ $5 2h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 97¢ $200 2h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? SELL No 10¢ $1 2h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? SELL No 10¢ $2 2h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? SELL No 10¢ $10 2h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? SELL No 10¢ $4 2h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 14¢ $24 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7.50 · official $7.50 (match) · 91 history records