Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T10:57:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2A
0x2a0a…75ac
sports · 399 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
+$557 +2%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$34 · open −$2
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$107
Realized+$34
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses202 / 191
Est. fees paid−$583
Open positions6
Markets (closed)393 / 399
History coverage80d
Avg bet$93
Trades / day30.7
Drawdown99%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 6 History 393 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$370
7 days−$547
14 days−$686
30 days−$1,440
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Cincinnati Reds 50¢ 50¢ $41 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Miami Marlins 41¢ 40¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-0%)
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Cleveland Guardians 52¢ 52¢ $14 $13 −$0 (-1%)
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets New York Mets 52¢ 50¢ $14 $13 −$0 (-3%)
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Toronto Blue Jays 47¢ 46¢ $14 $13 −$0 (-3%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Los Angeles Angels 49¢ 48¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 14 $34 −$34 -100%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 14 $35 −$35 -100%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 14 $62 −$62 -100%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 14 $104 −$104 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 14 $104 −$104 -100%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 14 $52 +$29 +55%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 13 $34 +$31 +90%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 13 $34 +$27 +77%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $35 −$35 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 13 $104 −$104 -100%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 13 $103 −$103 -100%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 13 $35 −$35 -100%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 13 $104 −$104 -100%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 13 $103 +$38 +36%
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 13 $34 +$28 +83%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 13 $104 +$131 +126%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 13 $103 +$65 +63%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 12 $35 −$35 -100%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 12 $103 −$103 -100%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 12 $104 −$104 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 12 $104 −$104 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 12 $35 +$30 +88%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 12 $104 $0 +0%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 11 $34 +$26 +74%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 11 $35 −$35 -100%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 11 $35 −$35 -100%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 11 $104 −$104 -100%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 11 $104 −$104 -100%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 11 $35 +$30 +87%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 11 $104 +$155 +149%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 11 $104 +$165 +159%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 11 $35 +$28 +80%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 11 $103 +$94 +90%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 10 $104 +$92 +89%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets Jun 10 $34 −$34 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 10 $35 −$35 -100%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 10 $104 −$104 -100%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 10 $34 +$27 +79%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 10 $35 +$33 +94%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 10 $104 +$94 +91%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 10 $103 +$97 +94%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 10 $35 +$41 +119%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 10 $104 +$93 +89%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 10 $104 +$95 +91%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 09 $104 +$69 +67%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 09 $34 −$34 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 09 $104 −$104 -100%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 09 $104 −$104 -100%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 09 $104 +$133 +129%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 09 $103 +$88 +85%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 100% +$33
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Los Angeles Angels 49¢ $7 42m
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Miami Marlins 41¢ $7 42m
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Cincinnati Reds 50¢ $21 1h
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY Cleveland Guardians 53¢ $7 1h
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets BUY New York Mets 52¢ $7 1h
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Toronto Blue Jays 47¢ $7 1h
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Miami Marlins 40¢ $7 2h
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Cincinnati Reds 50¢ $21 3h
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY Cleveland Guardians 52¢ $7 3h
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets BUY New York Mets 52¢ $7 3h
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Toronto Blue Jays 47¢ $7 3h
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Miami Marlins 41¢ $7 4h
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics SELL Athletics 93¢ $40 6h
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics SELL Athletics 93¢ $40 6h
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants BUY San Francisco Giants 49¢ $21 11h
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals SELL Washington Nationals 94¢ $12 12h
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals SELL Washington Nationals 94¢ $12 12h
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals SELL Washington Nationals 94¢ $13 12h
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals SELL Washington Nationals 94¢ $13 12h
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals SELL Washington Nationals 94¢ $12 12h
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants BUY San Francisco Giants 49¢ $21 12h
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants BUY San Francisco Giants 49¢ $21 14h
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 59¢ $26 15h
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 59¢ $26 16h
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants BUY San Francisco Giants 49¢ $21 16h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Chicago White Sox 36¢ $21 17h
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 52¢ $17 17h
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets BUY New York Mets 53¢ $7 17h
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 53¢ $7 17h
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 52¢ $17 18h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 62 -13.3% -21.6% 47% 44% -20.1%
≤30d 179 -6.6% -15.5% 49% 47% -18.0%
≤90d 393 +0.7% -8.9% 51% 51% -9.4%
all 393 +0.7% -8.9% 51% 51% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover30.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.9% 51% -9.4%
10% ← realistic here -17.6% 50% -18.1%
15% -25.6% 49% -26.0%
20% -32.9% 46% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $107.27 · official $107.27 (match) · 2754 history records