Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T13:30:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2A 0x2a06…faba other 133 markets active 1h ago coverage 100d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$69 (-0%) realized −$69 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate14%18W / 114L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$138per market
Trades / day4.6pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$38now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$16
14 days−$42
30 days−$50
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 26% −$92
politics 24% −$14
sports 17% −$7
crypto 13% −$21
economics 7% −$4
world 4% −$3
culture 4% −$2
finance 3% −$4
tech 2% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -1.0% -10.5% 0% 0% -10.2%
≤30d 65 -1.2% -10.6% 9% 0% -10.2%
≤90d 119 -0.9% -10.3% 13% 0% -10.3%
all 132 -0.8% -10.3% 14% 0% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.3% 0% -10.3%
10% -18.9% 0% -18.8%
15% -26.7% 0% -26.7%
20% -33.9% 0% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 51% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.09 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

100d coverage
Net worth$38
Realized−$69
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses18 / 114
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)132 / 133
History coverage100d
Avg bet$138
Trades / day4.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 132 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? No 98¢ 98¢ $37 $38 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 18 $34 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $38 $0 -0%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 17 $137 −$1 -1%
Will Wes Streeting be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 17 $43 $0 -1%
Will Czechia reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $20 $0 -2%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $72 $0 -0%
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 16 $155 −$2 -2%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 16 $36 −$1 -2%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 15 $801 −$1 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $43 $0 -0%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 14 $172 −$3 -2%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $34 $0 -0%
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $87 $0 -0%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 14 $156 −$1 -1%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 13 $94 $0 -0%
Will Detroit Pistons win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 13 $42 $0 -1%
Will Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 13 $29 −$1 -2%
Will Ferran Torres be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $47 $0 -1%
Will Cody Gakpo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $47 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $41 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $19 −$1 -3%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $38 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? Jun 11 $41 −$1 -2%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? Jun 11 $41 −$1 -3%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 11 $51 $0 -0%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 11 $56 −$5 -8%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Jun 10 $106 $0 -0%
Will Jordan Pickford record the most clean sheets at the 2026 FIFA Wor Jun 10 $63 −$14 -22%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $636 $0 +0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 Jun 09 $118 $0 -0%
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 09 $59 −$1 -1%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 07 $59 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 07 $65 $0 -0%
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $62 −$1 -1%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2026 World Series? Jun 06 $62 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 06 $64 −$1 -2%
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 06 $10 $0 +0%
Will New York Knicks win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 05 $75 −$2 -3%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 05 $129 −$1 -1%
Will The Odyssey be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 05 $75 $0 +0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 04 $158 −$1 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 03 $48 $0 +0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 03 $125 $0 -0%
Will Abbas Araghchi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 03 $98 −$1 -1%
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 02 $53 −$1 -2%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 02 $62 $0 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $340 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 01 $43 $0 -1%
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 01 $59 $0 -0%
Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 31 $98 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 98¢ $38 42m
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $34 1h
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $34 9h
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $38 10h
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $38 16h
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 97¢ $31 16h
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 94¢ $30 23h
Will Wes Streeting be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in SELL No 97¢ $42 24h
Will Wes Streeting be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY No 98¢ $43 29h
Will Czechia reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 96¢ $19 30h
Will Czechia reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $10 34h
Will Czechia reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $10 35h
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 98¢ $40 35h
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 98¢ $40 42h
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 96¢ $31 43h
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 96¢ $31 2d
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 92¢ $37 2d
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 93¢ $38 2d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 94¢ $36 2d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 95¢ $36 2d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $35 2d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 97¢ $35 3d
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 96¢ $44 3d
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 97¢ $6 3d
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 97¢ $28 3d
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 97¢ $10 3d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $43 3d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $43 3d
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 95¢ $44 3d
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 97¢ $45 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $37.51 · official $37.51 (match) · 502 history records