Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T16:01:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2A 0x2a06…1d10 other 130 markets active 2h ago coverage 132d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$13 (-0%) realized −$13 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate10%13W / 117L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$229per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% −$15
politics 37% −$14
sports 7% +$15
tech 4% −$1
crypto 2% −$1
world 2% −$1
culture 1% $0
economics 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-5.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 12 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 100 -0.1% -9.6% 3% 0% -9.6%
all 130 +4.1% -5.8% 10% 5% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.8% 5% -9.6%
10% -14.8% 4% -18.2%
15% -23.1% 3% -26.1%
20% -30.6% 2% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 63% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
54% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +8% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$1 · ×7.9 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

132d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$13
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses13 / 117
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)130 / 130
History coverage132d
Avg bet$229
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 130 Trades
no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 21 $30 $0 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 21 $432 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 19 $254 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 19 $237 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 29 $824 −$1 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 28 $188 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 26 $431 −$1 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 26 $551 −$1 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina May 25 $227 $0 -0%
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 25 $173 $0 -0%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 23 $194 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 23 $223 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 21 $817 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 20 $623 −$1 -0%
Will Butch Ware win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 19 $188 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 17 $159 $0 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 16 $385 −$1 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 16 $222 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 15 $431 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $342 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $563 −$1 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 05 $209 $0 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 04 $167 $0 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $544 −$1 -0%
Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026? May 03 $162 $0 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 02 $197 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 02 $184 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $211 $0 -0%
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 01 $234 $0 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 30 $227 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 30 $222 $0 -0%
Will Park Ju-min win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 29 $159 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $232 $0 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 27 $194 $0 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? Apr 26 $216 $0 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $200 $0 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 26 $375 $0 -0%
Will the Atlanta Falcons win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 24 $210 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $420 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 21 $179 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 19 $179 $0 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $195 $0 -0%
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $218 $0 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 19 $192 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 18 $192 $0 -0%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 18 $161 $0 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 18 $185 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 17 $172 $0 -0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 17 $212 $0 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 17 $204 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $30 1h
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $30 11h
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $25 11h
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $25 12h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $36 44h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $36 2d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $30 2d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $30 13d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $211 22d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $211 24d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $188 24d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $188 25d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $210 25d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $210 26d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $202 26d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $202 26d
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina SELL No 99¢ $227 26d
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina BUY No 99¢ $227 27d
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? SELL No 100¢ $173 27d
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY No 100¢ $173 28d
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $194 28d
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $194 29d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $223 29d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $223 30d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $213 31d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $213 31d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $216 31d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $216 32d
Will Butch Ware win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $188 32d
Will Butch Ware win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $188 33d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 419 history records