Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T02:30:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
2A 0x2a05…1388 world 18 markets active 2h ago coverage 61d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$10 (+0%) realized +$10 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate39%7W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$117per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$13
7 days−$14
14 days−$9
30 days−$16
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 58% +$3
other 16% −$7
finance 9% +$2
politics 9% $0
weather 6% $0
tech 1% −$3
economics 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-14.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -9.5% -18.1% 33% 0% -12.8%
≤30d 10 -9.4% -18.0% 30% 10% -10.9%
≤90d 18 -5.9% -14.8% 39% 11% -9.7%
all 18 -5.9% -14.8% 39% 11% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.8% 11% -9.7%
10% -23.0% 6% -18.4%
15% -30.4% 6% -26.3%
20% -37.3% 6% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 56% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
71% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$4 · ×0.97 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

61d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses7 / 11
Open positions0
Markets (closed)18 / 18
History coverage61d
Avg bet$117
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 18 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by June 30? Jun 28 $190 −$19 -10%
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by July 17, 2026? Jun 27 $190 +$5 +3%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 25 $3 −$1 -21%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $215 +$5 +2%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $193 $0 +0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.2T? Jun 11 $11 −$3 -31%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June? Jun 11 $2 +$2 +68%
Will Reya launch a token by December 31, 2027? Jun 11 $54 −$3 -5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 06 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $191 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by May 31? May 28 $279 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on May 27? May 26 $136 $0 +0%
Chirayu Rana divorced? May 11 $10 −$4 -38%
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31? May 11 $98 +$4 +4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 13, 2026? May 11 $194 +$10 +5%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026? Apr 30 $142 $0 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Apr 29 $6 +$1 +17%
Will Iran strike Bahrain by April 30, 2026? Apr 28 $186 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by June 30? SELL No 83¢ $171 1h
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by June 30? BUY No 92¢ $190 4h
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by July 17, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $195 12h
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by July 17, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $190 17h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes $2 3d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes $3 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $9 12d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $6 14d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $193 15d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $193 16d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.2T? SELL Yes $8 16d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June? SELL Yes $4 16d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $212 16d
Will Reya launch a token by December 31, 2027? SELL Yes 88¢ $51 16d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? BUY Yes $0 22d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? BUY Yes $3 22d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.2T? BUY Yes $11 22d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June? BUY Yes $2 22d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June? BUY Yes $0 22d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June? BUY Yes $0 22d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $209 23d
Will Reya launch a token by December 31, 2027? BUY Yes 92¢ $54 23d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 2, 2026? SELL Yes 90¢ $191 25d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 2, 2026? BUY Yes 90¢ $191 25d
Netanyahu out by May 31? SELL No 100¢ $279 30d
Netanyahu out by May 31? BUY No 100¢ $279 30d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on May 27? SELL No 100¢ $136 32d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on May 27? BUY No 99¢ $136 33d
Chirayu Rana divorced? SELL Yes $6 47d
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31? SELL No $19 47d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 84 history records