Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T07:58:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2A
0x2a01…6397
world · 250 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$62,484 +4%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$50,640 · open +$3,955
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$171,081
Realized+$50,640
Unrealized+$3,955
Win rate (resolved)91%
Wins / losses173 / 18
Whale WR (big bets)92%
Est. fees paid−$104
Open positions74
Markets (closed)191 / 250
Avg bet$5,673
Trades / day92.8
Drawdown58%
Kalshi-fit77%
Chart Positions 74 History 191 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$404
7 days+$6,035
14 days+$22,486
30 days+$37,354
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? No 94¢ 96¢ $24,508 $25,013 +$504 (+2%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 93¢ 96¢ $19,156 $19,873 +$717 (+4%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 97¢ 99¢ $17,247 $17,555 +$308 (+2%)
Kevin Warsh cuts rates at first Fed meeting? No 97¢ 99¢ $16,642 $17,056 +$414 (+2%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 94¢ 97¢ $12,267 $12,626 +$359 (+3%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 83¢ 90¢ $6,408 $6,991 +$583 (+9%)
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? No 97¢ 99¢ $5,839 $5,913 +$74 (+1%)
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? No 91¢ 96¢ $5,260 $5,534 +$273 (+5%)
Will Hunter Biden announce a Delaware Senate run by July 14? No 97¢ 99¢ $3,864 $3,951 +$87 (+2%)
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? No 96¢ 99¢ $3,163 $3,258 +$96 (+3%)
Iran leadership change by June 30? No 94¢ 97¢ $3,036 $3,128 +$92 (+3%)
New "Stranger Things" episode released by December 31? No 93¢ 94¢ $2,864 $2,894 +$31 (+1%)
Will Donald Trump be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island? No 98¢ 99¢ $2,257 $2,270 +$14 (+1%)
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026? Yes 97¢ 100¢ $1,931 $1,997 +$66 (+3%)
Will Barron Trump be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO? No 98¢ 100¢ $1,956 $1,994 +$38 (+2%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? No 99¢ 99¢ $1,986 $1,987 +$1 (+0%)
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 98¢ 98¢ $1,968 $1,973 +$5 (+0%)
Will the Reserve Bank of Australia increase the target for the cash rate after the June Meeting? No 98¢ 98¢ $1,970 $1,970 +$0 (+0%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? No 88¢ 96¢ $1,770 $1,920 +$150 (+8%)
Will The Odyssey have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026? No 95¢ 95¢ $1,900 $1,899 −$1 (-0%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31? No 92¢ 92¢ $1,840 $1,850 +$10 (+1%)
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? No 87¢ 90¢ $1,740 $1,790 +$50 (+3%)
US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026? No 93¢ 91¢ $1,675 $1,630 −$44 (-3%)
Republicans win Trifecta with Senate Supermajority in midterms? No 89¢ 95¢ $1,505 $1,608 +$103 (+7%)
No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? No 98¢ 99¢ $1,598 $1,607 +$9 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mistral have the second best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will ByteDance have the second best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will Moonshot have the second best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will SpaceX IPO on June 11, 2026? Jun 12 $3,956 +$44 +1%
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the June 2026 meeting? Jun 11 $4,949 +$51 +1%
Will the ECB announce no change at the June 2026 meeting? Jun 11 $7,145 +$73 +1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 11 $1,823 +$24 +1%
Will SpaceX IPO on June 10, 2026? Jun 11 $63 +$1 +1%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 10, 2026? Jun 11 $982 +$18 +2%
Will May 2026 be the 2nd hottest on record? Jun 10 $970 +$30 +3%
Will the Bank of Canada announce a 25 bps decrease at the June meeting Jun 10 $2,090 +$2 +0%
Will the Bank of Canada announce an increase at the June meeting? Jun 10 $263 +$3 +1%
Will the Bank of Canada announce no change at the June meeting? Jun 10 $7,178 +$159 +2%
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on June 9, 2026? Jun 10 $301 +$9 +3%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9? Jun 10 $33,905 +$125 +0%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Xi Jinping by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $1,921 +$56 +3%
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 10 $0 $0 -52%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $1,960 +$40 +2%
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? Jun 09 $976 +$24 +2%
Will Karen Bass & Nithya Raman advance to the second round of the 2026 Jun 09 $3,489 +$3 +0%
Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 202 Jun 09 $2 −$1 -37%
Will "Backrooms" 2nd Weekend Box Office be less than 50m? Jun 08 $5,652 +$52 +1%
Will "Masters of the Universe" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 3 Jun 08 $1,952 +$48 +2%
Will "Masters of the Universe" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than Jun 08 $411 +$13 +3%
Will "Masters of the Universe" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 3 Jun 08 $1,758 −$273 -16%
Will "Scary Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 40m? Jun 08 $321 +$2 +1%
Will "The Amazing Digital Circus: The Last Act" Opening Weekend Box Of Jun 08 $317 +$4 +1%
Will "The Amazing Digital Circus: The Last Act" Opening Weekend Box Of Jun 08 $13,811 +$259 +2%
Will "Obsession" 4th Weekend Box Office be between 27m and 30m? Jun 08 $1,107 +$21 +2%
Will "Obsession" 4th Weekend Box Office be less than 21m? Jun 08 $1,838 +$45 +2%
Will the next Claude Opus 4.8 model added to the Arena Leaderboard deb Jun 08 $4,526 +$93 +2%
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $20 $0 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $3,142 +$19 +1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 08 $4,765 +$89 +2%
Will the next Claude Opus 4.8 model added to the Arena Leaderboard deb Jun 08 $14,447 +$99 +1%
Will the next Claude Opus 4.8 model added to the Arena Leaderboard deb Jun 08 $988 +$12 +1%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? Jun 08 $27,110 +$3,754 +14%
Will "Masters of the Universe" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 2 Jun 07 $52 +$12 +23%
UFC Fight Night: Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim (Welterweight, Main Jun 07 $28,894 +$662 +2%
UFC Fight Night: Farés Ziam vs. Tom Nolan (Lightweight, Prelims) Jun 07 $11,165 +$11 +0%
UFC Fight Night: Bryce Mitchell vs. Santiago Luna (Bantamweight, Main Jun 07 $16,099 +$394 +2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 5? Jun 06 $1,959 +$39 +2%
Hantavirus lab leak confirmed by June 30? Jun 05 $1,773 +$21 +1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? Jun 04 $1,937 +$35 +2%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $63,438 +$362 +1%
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026? Jun 02 $196 +$388 +198%
Will "Obsession" 3rd Weekend Box Office be greater than 19m? Jun 01 $215 +$2 +1%
Will "Backrooms" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 67m and 73m? Jun 01 $817 +$12 +2%
Will "Backrooms" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 61m? Jun 01 $63 $0 +0%
Will "Backrooms" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 79m? Jun 01 $5,265 +$41 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 50% +$9,209
other 19% +$32,090
politics 7% +$8,756
tech 6% +$1,822
sports 6% +$1,033
culture 5% +$711
crypto 4% +$362
economics 2% +$614
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? SELL No 96¢ $57 25m
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? SELL No 96¢ $48 35m
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31? BUY No 92¢ $1,840 1h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? SELL No 96¢ $2 1h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? SELL No 96¢ $30 1h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 95¢ $1,906 3h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 96¢ $956 3h
JD Vance out as VP by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $985 4h
Will the Reserve Bank of Australia increase the target for the cash ra BUY No 98¢ $1,228 4h
Will the Reserve Bank of Australia make no change to the target for th BUY Yes 98¢ $671 4h
Will the Reserve Bank of Australia increase the target for the cash ra BUY No 99¢ $657 5h
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 m BUY Yes 98¢ $8 5h
Will DeepSeek have the third best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 5h
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 m BUY Yes 98¢ $529 5h
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 m BUY Yes 98¢ $196 6h
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 m BUY Yes 98¢ $255 6h
No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the June 2026 meetin BUY No 98¢ $317 6h
Trump goes to space in 2026? SELL No 97¢ $8 7h
Trump goes to space in 2026? SELL No 97¢ $828 7h
Ukraine election held by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $4 8h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 96¢ $860 8h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 96¢ $49 8h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 96¢ $47 8h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 96¢ $3 8h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 96¢ $961 8h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 96¢ $963 8h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 96¢ $965 9h
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? SELL No 96¢ $2,865 10h
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? SELL No 95¢ $1,821 10h
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? SELL No 95¢ $59 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)+4.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 43 -8.8% -17.4% 86% 5% -7.0%
≤30d 162 +4.9% -5.1% 91% 9% -6.3%
≤90d 191 +15.1% +4.2% 91% 11% -5.7%
all 191 +15.1% +4.2% 91% 11% -5.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover92.8 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +4.2% 11% -5.7%
10% -5.8% 9% -14.7%
15% ← realistic here -14.9% 6% -22.9%
20% -23.2% 6% -30.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $171,081.04 · official $171,082.46 (match) · 3500 history records