Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T18:49:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
29 0x29fe…1c1b crypto 143 markets active 0h ago coverage 24d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (85 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$363 (+4%) realized +$376 · open −$13
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate41%58W / 83L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$68per market
Trades / day85.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$42now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 24d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$48
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (85 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 140 -0.4% -9.9% 41% 34% -8.9%
≤30d 141 -1.1% -10.5% 41% 34% -9.0%
≤90d 141 -1.1% -10.5% 41% 34% -9.0%
all 141 -1.1% -10.5% 41% 34% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover85.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.5% 34% -9.0%
10% ← realistic here -19.1% 27% -17.7%
15% -26.9% 23% -25.6%
20% -34.1% 17% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late +11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
14.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$16 · ×1.5 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

24d coverage
Net worth$42
Realized+$376
Unrealized−$13
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses58 / 83
Open positions2
Markets (closed)141 / 143
History coverage24d
Avg bet$68
Trades / day85.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 141 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Up 66¢ 96¢ $28 $41 +$13 (+45%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Down 43¢ 4¢ $12 $1 −$11 (-90%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Down 31¢ 2¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-92%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 27 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 15 $118 −$8 -6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 15 $28 +$21 +73%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 15 $8 +$4 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 15 $187 +$42 +23%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 15 $7 +$14 +192%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 15 $102 −$17 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 15 $28 −$13 -45%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 15 $8 −$3 -35%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 15 $21 −$15 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 15 $26 +$16 +62%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$2 +47%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$9 +223%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $105 +$5 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 15 $108 −$9 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 15 $177 +$9 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$5 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +28%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 15 $8 +$4 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 15 $162 +$44 +27%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 15 $118 +$63 +53%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 15 $13 −$4 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 15 $119 −$96 -80%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 15 $7 −$1 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 15 $29 −$4 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 15 $48 +$40 +83%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +34%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 15 $9 +$4 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 15 $173 +$31 +18%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$1 -16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 15 $47 −$16 -34%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -96%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 15 $101 −$74 -73%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 15 $24 −$8 -34%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 15 $275 −$63 -23%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 15 $86 +$18 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 15 $11 +$2 +22%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 15 $98 +$14 +15%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 15 $9 −$9 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $12 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $4 2m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $2 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $12 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $12 3m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $2 4m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $2 4m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $4 4m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $4 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $16 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $2 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $9 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $2 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $2 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $3 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $7 4m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $1 4m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $3 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $2 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $0 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $2 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $3 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $9 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $2 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $4 5m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $0 5m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $3 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $15 5m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $4 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 6m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $41.94 · official $41.71 (match) · 2183 history records