Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T21:38:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
29 0x29fd…5d70 crypto 175 markets active 13d ago coverage 7d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (56 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$65 (-9%) realized −$65 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate42%74W / 101L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day55.9pace
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 62% −$54
other 38% −$27
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (56 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-20.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 175 -12.4% -20.8% 42% 37% -18.3%
≤90d 175 -12.4% -20.8% 42% 37% -18.3%
all 175 -12.4% -20.8% 42% 37% -18.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover55.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.8% 37% -18.3%
10% ← realistic here -28.4% 33% -26.1%
15% -35.3% 27% -33.3%
20% -41.6% 25% -39.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$65
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses74 / 101
Open positions0
Markets (closed)175 / 175
History coverage7d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day55.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 175 Trades
no open positions (53 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will USA advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $6 −$3 -45%
Will Switzerland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Jun 16 $6 $0 -1%
Will Paraguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 16 $16 −$1 -4%
Will Haiti advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $6 −$2 -26%
Will Czechia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 16 $24 −$1 -3%
Will Brazil advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $6 −$2 -36%
Will Sweden win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $3 $0 -9%
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 15 $12 $0 -1%
Will Morocco advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 15 $6 −$2 -37%
Will Qatar advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $6 −$1 -19%
Will South Africa advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA Worl Jun 15 $16 +$1 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12PM ET Jun 15 $20 −$19 -96%
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $11 $0 -3%
Will Ivory Coast win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $4 $0 -3%
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $9 $0 -2%
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $10 $0 -5%
Will Australia win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $8 −$1 -12%
Will Ecuador win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $5 +$1 +12%
Will Scotland win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $6 $0 -2%
Will Canada advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $12 +$1 +10%
Will Canada win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $12 +$1 +9%
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $6 −$1 -22%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 12, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 -3%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 -3%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 11, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$4 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$1 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 -8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$3 -54%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$4 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 10 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3PM ET Jun 10 $8 −$5 -62%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 3PM ET Jun 10 $3 −$2 -61%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$6 +115%
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 1PM ET Jun 10 $3 +$2 +86%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 10, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -88%
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$4 -86%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 10, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$3 -58%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$9 +185%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 10 $4 +$5 +124%
HYPE Up or Down - June 10, 10AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$3 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9AM ET Jun 10 $10 −$5 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 10 $4 +$2 +44%
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 10 $5 +$3 +61%
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 9AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -97%
HYPE Up or Down - June 10, 9AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will USA advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 2¢ $1 12d
Will Switzerland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World SELL No 12¢ $0 12d
Will Paraguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu SELL No 61¢ $1 12d
Will Haiti advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 12d
Will Czechia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL No 45¢ $6 12d
Will Haiti advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 13d
Will Brazil advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 5¢ $2 13d
Will USA advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 2¢ $0 13d
Will USA advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 2¢ $0 13d
Will Sweden win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 72¢ $3 13d
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu SELL Yes 74¢ $4 13d
Will Morocco advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL No 6¢ $4 13d
Will Switzerland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World SELL No 12¢ $3 13d
Will Qatar advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 23¢ $5 13d
Will Haiti advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 13d
Will Brazil advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 5¢ $1 13d
Will Paraguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu SELL No 63¢ $6 13d
Will Czechia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL No 44¢ $6 13d
Will USA advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 2¢ $1 13d
Will South Africa advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA Worl SELL Yes 15¢ $4 13d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $16 13d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $5 13d
Will USA advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 3¢ $0 13d
Will South Africa advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA Worl BUY Yes 16¢ $5 13d
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 66¢ $4 13d
Will Ivory Coast win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 79¢ $4 13d
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 75¢ $4 13d
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 67¢ $4 13d
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 59¢ $4 13d
Will Switzerland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY No 11¢ $0 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 479 history records