Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T23:24:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
29 0x29fd…bfd4 crypto 48 markets active 0h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$77 (+2%) realized +$90 · open −$13
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -38% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -52% what you keep after slip
Net edge-52%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate26%11W / 32L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$91per market
Trades / day49.3pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$507now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 65% −$489
other 31% −$13
sports 3% −$89
world 1% −$34
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-43.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 43 -37.5% -43.4% 26% 26% -26.3%
≤30d 43 -37.5% -43.4% 26% 26% -26.3%
≤90d 43 -37.5% -43.4% 26% 26% -26.3%
all 43 -37.5% -43.4% 26% 26% -26.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover49.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -43.4% 26% -26.3%
10% ← realistic here -48.8% 26% -33.3%
15% -53.8% 23% -39.8%
20% -58.3% 23% -45.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -37% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -55% → late -21% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$115 vs −$59 · ×1.96 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$507
Realized+$90
Unrealized−$13
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses11 / 32
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions3
Markets (closed)43 / 48
History coverage5d
Avg bet$91
Trades / day49.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 43 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? Yes 31¢ 30¢ $313 $300 −$13 (-4%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? No 62¢ 63¢ $177 $178 +$1 (+0%)
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 29 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 25 $31 +$10 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 25 $32 −$30 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 25 $364 −$345 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 25 $415 +$261 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 25 $58 −$55 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 25 $165 +$278 +168%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 25 $82 −$78 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 25 $31 +$15 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 25 $55 −$52 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 25 $97 −$92 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 25 $32 −$30 -94%
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 25 $41 −$40 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 25 $69 −$13 -20%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $254 −$84 -33%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $132 −$5 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 25 $63 +$40 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 25 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 25 $77 −$73 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 25 $21 −$3 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 25 $31 +$26 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 25 $144 −$41 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 25 $26 +$24 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 25 $51 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 25 $110 −$105 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 25 $99 −$95 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 25 $130 −$125 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 25 $63 −$60 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 25 $131 −$125 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 25 $26 +$15 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 25 $42 −$6 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 25 $112 +$135 +120%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 25 $73 −$70 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 25 $42 −$40 -96%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $34 −$33 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $35 −$34 -97%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $8 −$8 -97%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $7 −$7 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $35 −$34 -97%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $210 +$227 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 20 $131 +$231 +176%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $50 −$49 -97%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $58 −$56 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 31¢ $98 5m
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? SELL No 62¢ $98 6m
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 33¢ $61 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET SELL Up 87¢ $41 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $5 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $26 13m
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 63¢ $202 13m
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 33¢ $51 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $5 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $5 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $5 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $5 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $5 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $5 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $27 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $106 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $5 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 14¢ $5 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $27 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $5 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $5 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $26 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $26 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $26 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $104 23m
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 62¢ $78 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET SELL Up 78¢ $676 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $104 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $104 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $104 27m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $507.18 · official $523.87 · 260 history records