Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:09:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
29 0x29fb…09e8 other 4 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$281 (+4%) realized +$266 · open +$15
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate67%2W / 1L
Drawdown9%max
Avg bet$1,790per market
Trades / day3.3pace
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$4,636now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 66% +$15
world 28% +$14
other 6% +$200
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-23.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -15.0% -23.1% 67% 33% -1.6%
≤30d 3 -15.0% -23.1% 67% 33% -1.6%
≤90d 3 -15.0% -23.1% 67% 33% -1.6%
all 3 -15.0% -23.1% 67% 33% -1.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.1% 33% -1.6%
10% -30.4% 33% -11.0%
15% -37.2% 33% -19.6%
20% -43.3% 33% -27.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 94% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% too few recent
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt +9% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$117 vs −$20 · ×5.84 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×11.69 per $1 lost it wins $11.69
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$4,636
Realized+$266
Unrealized+$15
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses2 / 1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)3 / 4
History coverage4d
Avg bet$1,790
Trades / day3.3
Drawdown9%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 51¢ 52¢ $4,621 $4,636 +$15 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ciro Gomes win the 2026 Ceará gubernatorial election? Jun 17 $2,024 +$14 +1%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $405 +$220 +54%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,636.14 · official $4,636.14 (match) · 13 history records