Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T07:09:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
29 0x29f8…4d7b weather 529 markets active 0h ago coverage 194d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$7,213 (+29%) realized +$7,178 · open +$35
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +1% what you keep after slip
Net edge+1%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate62%327W / 200L
Drawdown5%max
Avg bet$47per market
Trades / day12.3pace
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$50now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$110
7 days+$274
14 days+$490
30 days+$1,068
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 70% +$4,524
other 26% +$2,369
finance 3% +$172
crypto 1% −$53
politics 0% −$1
world 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)+9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +34.4% +21.6% 81% 75% +22.4%
≤30d 88 +38.2% +25.0% 57% 48% +21.0%
≤90d 249 +29.9% +17.5% 61% 54% +13.8%
all 527 +20.8% +9.3% 62% 54% +14.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +9.3% 54% +14.8%
10% -1.1% 38% +3.8%
15% -10.7% 25% -6.2%
20% -19.5% 18% -15.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +26% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +21% · $-wt +28% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +13% → late +29% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$11 · ×2.48 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.13 per $1 lost it wins $4.13
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

194d coverage
Net worth$50
Realized+$7,178
Unrealized+$35
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses327 / 200
Open positions2
Markets (closed)527 / 529
History coverage194d
Avg bet$47
Trades / day12.3
Drawdown5%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 527 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 20? Yes 22¢ 94¢ $10 $43 +$33 (+337%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C or higher on June 20? Yes 5¢ 7¢ $5 $8 +$3 (+53%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 20? Jun 20 $107 +$95 +88%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 20? Jun 20 $3 +$5 +162%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 20? Jun 20 $44 +$11 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 20? Jun 20 $3 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 19? Jun 19 $86 −$1 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 19? Jun 19 $74 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 18? Jun 18 $12 +$3 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 18? Jun 18 $26 +$5 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $26 +$8 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 17? Jun 17 $33 +$8 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 17? Jun 17 $149 +$78 +52%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 17? Jun 17 $105 +$22 +21%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +63%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $1 $0 -33%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 14? Jun 14 $57 +$14 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 14? Jun 14 $51 +$27 +53%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $24 +$92 +376%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 11? Jun 12 $78 +$101 +130%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $24 −$22 -93%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 11? Jun 11 $58 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 10? Jun 10 $21 +$7 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 10? Jun 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 9? Jun 09 $1 +$6 +614%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 8? Jun 08 $2 −$2 -89%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 8? Jun 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 7? Jun 07 $17 +$40 +229%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 7? Jun 07 $2 −$2 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 7? Jun 06 $5 −$5 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 6? Jun 06 $101 +$15 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 6? Jun 06 $7 −$3 -44%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 36°C on June 6? Jun 06 $0 $0 -33%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on June 6? Jun 06 $4 +$4 +96%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 6? Jun 06 $35 +$10 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 5? Jun 05 $42 +$173 +412%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 5? Jun 05 $178 +$48 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 35°C on June 4? Jun 04 $1 −$1 -89%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 4? Jun 04 $28 +$11 +41%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 4? Jun 04 $87 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 4? Jun 04 $10 +$1 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 4? Jun 04 $6 −$6 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 4? Jun 04 $43 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on June 3? Jun 03 $4 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 3? Jun 03 $11 −$8 -71%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 2? Jun 02 $113 −$55 -48%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on June 2? Jun 02 $5 −$3 -67%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 2? Jun 02 $32 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 2? Jun 02 $1 $0 -41%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 2? Jun 02 $83 +$17 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 1? Jun 01 $78 +$22 +28%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 20? SELL No 100¢ $15 4m
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 20? SELL No 100¢ $8 6m
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C or higher on June BUY Yes 2¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 20? BUY No 37¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 20? BUY Yes 31¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 20? SELL No 88¢ $45 1h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 20? BUY No 36¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 20? BUY No 36¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 20? BUY No 36¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 20? SELL No 97¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 20? SELL Yes 86¢ $187 1h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C or higher on June BUY Yes 6¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 20? BUY Yes 53¢ $53 3h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 20? BUY Yes 56¢ $33 3h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C or higher on June BUY Yes 9¢ $2 4h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 20? BUY Yes 14¢ $4 4h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 20? BUY Yes 26¢ $0 4h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 20? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 20? BUY Yes 26¢ $2 4h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 20? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 20? BUY Yes 23¢ $2 4h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 20? SELL Yes 43¢ $3 4h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 20? BUY Yes 41¢ $3 5h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 20? BUY Yes 25¢ $11 5h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 20? BUY No 71¢ $44 5h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 19? SELL Yes 93¢ $56 23h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 19? BUY Yes 85¢ $52 24h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 19? SELL No 76¢ $50 26h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 19? SELL No 75¢ $24 26h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 19? SELL Yes 21¢ $29 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $50.18 · official $50.08 (match) · 2526 history records