Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T23:20:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
29 0x29f8…148d crypto 759 markets active 2h ago coverage 56d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$107 (-7%) realized −$96 · open −$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate44%327W / 419L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day22.1pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$9now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$11
7 days+$12
14 days−$21
30 days−$44
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 70% −$56
sports 17% −$98
weather 10% −$8
other 3% +$1
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-16.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 48 +26.0% +14.0% 35% 33% -0.6%
≤30d 504 -9.4% -18.0% 37% 35% -17.3%
≤90d 746 -7.4% -16.3% 44% 40% -20.8%
all 746 -7.4% -16.3% 44% 40% -20.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.3% 40% -20.8%
10% ← realistic here -24.3% 33% -28.4%
15% -31.6% 28% -35.3%
20% -38.3% 24% -41.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.97 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

56d coverage
Net worth$9
Realized−$96
Unrealized−$11
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses327 / 419
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions13
Markets (closed)746 / 759
History coverage56d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day22.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 746 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Yes 12¢ 42¢ $1 $4 +$3 (+254%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 17¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 15¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 16? Yes 44¢ 42¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 16? Yes 36¢ 28¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-24%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on June 15? Yes 35¢ 3¢ $5 $0 −$4 (-92%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 15? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-96%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 65°F or below on June 15? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-98%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on June 15? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 15? Yes 20¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Yes 40¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 15? Yes 45¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 354 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on Ju Jun 15 $1 +$1 +74%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 15 $1 −$1 -99%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju Jun 15 $2 −$2 -94%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -93%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 96-97°F on June 15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -86%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 15 $1 $0 +20%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on Ju Jun 15 $2 +$2 +91%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 15? Jun 15 $2 +$1 +52%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju Jun 14 $7 −$7 -96%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju Jun 13 $3 +$13 +417%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 69°F or below on June Jun 13 $8 +$15 +173%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on Ju Jun 13 $10 −$10 -96%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 67°F or below on June Jun 13 $10 −$10 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +91%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C on June 13? Jun 12 $1 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 12 $1 $0 +35%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 13? Jun 12 $1 $0 +32%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju Jun 12 $1 +$3 +307%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju Jun 12 $1 +$25 +2368%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 13? Jun 12 $1 +$1 +57%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 12? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 +$2 +177%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 10? Jun 09 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 10? Jun 09 $2 −$2 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C on June 9? Jun 09 $1 +$2 +211%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 10? Jun 09 $1 $0 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 10? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 10? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 10? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 10? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 10? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 10? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 40°C or higher on June 10? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 39°C on June 10? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C or higher on June 10? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 10? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 9? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 9? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 9? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 9? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 9? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 28°C on June 9? Jun 09 $1 +$1 +75%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 9? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 9? Jun 09 $2 +$3 +155%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 9? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on June 9? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 9? Jun 08 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 9? Jun 08 $1 $0 -9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 16? BUY Yes 44¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on Ju SELL Yes 8¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on Ju SELL Yes 8¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju SELL Yes 2¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju BUY Yes 20¢ $1 2h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju BUY Yes 45¢ $4 2h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 42¢ $1 3h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 38¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 16? BUY Yes 36¢ $1 3h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 42¢ $1 3h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 3h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 3h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 3h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 15? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 4h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 96-97°F on June 15? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 4h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 96-97°F on June 15? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 6h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 78-79°F on Ju SELL Yes 1¢ $1 6h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 65°F or below on June BUY Yes 2¢ $1 7h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 96-97°F on June 15? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 10h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on Ju SELL Yes 39¢ $4 11h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on Ju BUY Yes 4¢ $1 11h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju SELL Yes 40¢ $2 11h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 15? SELL Yes 55¢ $3 11h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 65°F or below on June SELL Yes 5¢ $2 13h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 65°F or below on June SELL Yes 5¢ $1 13h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 65°F or below on June SELL Yes 5¢ $1 13h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on June 15? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8.68 · official $8.68 (match) · 1441 history records