Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T00:54:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
29 0x29f8…cfb1 other 776 markets active 2h ago coverage 262d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$15,905 (+3%) realized +$16,753 · open −$848
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate64%460W / 262L
Whale WR76%big bets
Drawdown56%max
Avg bet$719per market
Trades / day6.8pace
Fees−$471est.
Kalshi-fit46%portable
Net worth$4,490now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$7,562
7 days+$2,412
14 days+$6,379
30 days+$2,564
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 65% +$8,933
sports 22% +$7,804
crypto 9% −$83
world 4% −$1,674
finance 0% +$14
politics 0% −$5
economics 0% −$37
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-12.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 -19.7% -27.3% 60% 37% -7.9%
≤30d 223 -8.6% -17.3% 58% 49% -8.5%
≤90d 528 -2.2% -11.5% 64% 57% -7.0%
all 722 -3.8% -12.9% 64% 53% -6.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.9% 53% -6.9%
10% -21.3% 39% -15.8%
15% -28.9% 29% -23.9%
20% -35.8% 21% -31.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 76% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -6% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$186 vs −$267 · ×0.7 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.23 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

262d coverage
Net worth$4,490
Realized+$16,753
Unrealized−$848
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses460 / 262
Whale WR (big bets)76%
Est. fees paid−$471
Open positions28
Markets (closed)722 / 776
History coverage262d
Avg bet$719
Trades / day6.8
Drawdown56%
Kalshi-fit46%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 28 History 722 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-27? No 83¢ 46¢ $2,000 $1,121 −$880 (-44%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Yes 86¢ 86¢ $860 $865 +$5 (+1%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Yes 48¢ 40¢ $960 $790 −$170 (-18%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ $185 $377 +$192 (+104%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 24¢ $145 $236 +$92 (+63%)
World Cup Goals H2H: Messi vs. Ronaldo Messi 61¢ 94¢ $122 $188 +$66 (+54%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 11¢ $154 $114 −$40 (-26%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $114 $100 −$14 (-13%)
World Cup: Unbeaten Champion? Yes 72¢ 90¢ $72 $90 +$18 (+24%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $96 $87 −$8 (-9%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $104 $79 −$25 (-24%)
Will Portugal be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? No 79¢ 74¢ $79 $74 −$6 (-7%)
Will A Nation That Has Never Won the World Cup Win in 2026? No 71¢ 72¢ $71 $72 +$0 (+1%)
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 71¢ 68¢ $71 $68 −$4 (-5%)
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 39¢ $4 $39 +$34 (+757%)
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 33¢ 38¢ $33 $38 +$5 (+15%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $18 $24 +$6 (+36%)
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? No 60¢ 23¢ $60 $23 −$37 (-62%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 26¢ 21¢ $26 $21 −$4 (-16%)
Will Alexander Zverev be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Yes $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $25 $14 −$10 (-42%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $30 $12 −$18 (-58%)
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $43 $11 −$32 (-75%)
Will Germany be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? Yes 61¢ 51¢ $12 $10 −$2 (-16%)
Will Trump be in the WC Champions Photo? Yes 75¢ 48¢ $15 $10 −$5 (-36%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Panama vs. England: Both Teams to Score AND Panama vs. England: O/U 7. Jun 27 $98 +$65 +67%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $10,972 +$443 +4%
Will Spain be the highest-scoring team in Group H during the Group Sta Jun 27 $17 +$3 +16%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $1,175 +$825 +70%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $7,230 +$4,120 +57%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $5,133 +$2,104 +41%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $19,934 −$10,604 -53%
Will Morocco advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 25 $86 +$14 +16%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $14,525 +$1,225 +8%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 1.5 AND Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on Jun 24 $102 +$280 +274%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $12,425 +$1,644 +13%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $11,308 +$1,356 +12%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $10,873 +$439 +4%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $10,451 +$422 +4%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals Jun 23 $202 −$200 -99%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $176 +$24 +14%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $10,229 +$223 +2%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 22 $76 −$76 -100%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $53 −$53 -100%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $54 −$54 -100%
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $90 −$90 -100%
Portugal to win the second half? Jun 22 $129 −$129 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 2.5 Corners Jun 22 $95 −$95 -100%
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $102 −$102 -100%
Switzerland leading at halftime? Jun 22 $102 −$102 -100%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $206 −$206 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 22 $203 −$203 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 22 $500 −$500 -100%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $1,141 +$113 +10%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $1,095 +$105 +10%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $9,124 +$983 +11%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $86 +$14 +16%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $8,712 +$316 +4%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $893 +$107 +12%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $536 +$264 +49%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $13 +$3 +20%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $203 +$142 +70%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 AND Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $403 +$147 +36%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $834 +$166 +20%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $90 +$10 +11%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $101 +$29 +29%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $301 +$52 +17%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 AND United States vs. Australia: Jun 19 $102 +$116 +114%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $417 +$83 +20%
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? Jun 19 $65 +$1 +1%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $153 +$47 +31%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $9,222 +$778 +8%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $257 +$143 +56%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $432 +$68 +16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 86¢ $864 1h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 83¢ $2,011 1h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 96¢ $10,972 5h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 48¢ $975 7h
Colombia vs. Portugal: Both Teams to Score AND Algeria vs. Austria: Bo BUY 15¢ $70 14h
Panama vs. England: Both Teams to Score AND Panama vs. England: O/U 7. BUY 59¢ $98 15h
Will United States win on 2026-07-01? AND Will Canada win on 2026-06-2 BUY 19¢ $99 15h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 58¢ $1,175 24h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 63¢ $7,230 32h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 70¢ $5,133 2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 81¢ $4,206 2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? SELL No 22¢ $4,191 2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 81¢ $15,729 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? AND BUY $10 2d
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 3.5 AND Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? AND W BUY 35¢ $102 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 92¢ $14,525 3d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 88¢ $12,425 3d
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 1.5 AND Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on BUY 26¢ $102 3d
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 89¢ $11,308 4d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 96¢ $10,873 4d
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 96¢ $10,451 4d
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals BUY No 74¢ $202 4d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 98¢ $10,229 5d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes $33 5d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes $51 5d
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $102 5d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 89¢ $1,089 5d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 91¢ $1,095 6d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 90¢ $9,124 6d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 96¢ $8,712 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,489.85 · official $4,654.89 · 2609 history records