Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T00:15:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
29 0x29f4…8da9 sports 210 markets active 1h ago coverage 144d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$96 (-3%) realized −$105 · open +$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate52%105W / 97L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Fees−$21est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$83now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$108
7 days+$108
14 days+$38
30 days+$93
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 93% −$66
crypto 3% −$39
world 1% +$9
tech 1% −$6
other 1% −$8
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-14.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +64.1% +48.5% 85% 85% +50.2%
≤30d 74 +14.0% +3.1% 65% 61% -0.5%
≤90d 159 -2.6% -11.8% 54% 50% -15.8%
all 202 -5.9% -14.9% 52% 48% -13.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.9% 48% -13.6%
10% -23.0% 48% -21.8%
15% -30.4% 46% -29.4%
20% -37.3% 40% -36.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$13 · ×0.83 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

144d coverage
Net worth$83
Realized−$105
Unrealized+$9
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses105 / 97
Est. fees paid−$21
Open positions8
Markets (closed)202 / 210
History coverage144d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 202 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? No 33¢ 36¢ $20 $22 +$2 (+8%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 76¢ 99¢ $16 $21 +$5 (+30%)
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds Cincinnati Reds 54¢ 62¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+15%)
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Boston Red Sox 54¢ 48¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-12%)
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? No 98¢ 100¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+2%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 93¢ 94¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? No 98¢ 99¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Yes 11¢ 24¢ $2 $4 +$2 (+123%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 93 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 16 $2 +$3 +134%
Tucuman: Facundo Mena vs Lorenzo Joaquin Rodriguez Jun 16 $10 $0 -2%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 16 $10 +$7 +70%
ITF Martos: Rigele Te vs Joao Domingues Jun 16 $10 +$7 +70%
T20 Blast: Durham vs Lancashire Jun 16 $10 +$7 +73%
Ilkley: Emerson Jones vs Dalma Galfi Jun 16 $10 +$7 +73%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 16 $10 +$8 +79%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 16 $10 +$9 +86%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 16 $10 +$9 +86%
Modena: Noemi Basiletti vs Varvara Lepchenko Jun 16 $10 +$9 +93%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 16 $20 +$17 +83%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 16 $41 +$35 +86%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 09 $10 −$10 -99%
Tucuman: Juan Estevez vs Matias Soto Jun 09 $10 −$10 -99%
T20 Blast: Essex vs Kent Jun 09 $10 −$10 -99%
Ilkley: Tereza Martincova vs Katie Swan Jun 09 $10 −$10 -99%
Ilkley: Taylah Preston vs Harmony Tan Jun 09 $10 −$10 -99%
San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 09 $10 +$5 +50%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 09 $10 +$7 +67%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 09 $10 +$7 +70%
Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees Jun 09 $10 +$14 +134%
Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals Jun 09 $20 +$12 +60%
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 09 $20 +$19 +93%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 09 $30 +$20 +65%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 03 $3 −$3 -99%
Athletics vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 03 $10 −$10 -99%
Texas Rangers vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 03 $10 −$10 -98%
San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 03 $10 −$10 -99%
Kansas City Royals vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 03 $10 −$10 -99%
New York Mets vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 03 $20 −$20 -99%
Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 03 $20 −$20 -99%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 03 $20 −$20 -99%
Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 02 $10 +$7 +70%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 02 $10 +$7 +70%
Minnesota Twins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 02 $10 +$8 +76%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 02 $10 +$8 +83%
Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets Jun 02 $10 +$8 +83%
Boston Red Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 02 $10 +$9 +86%
San Diego Padres vs. Washington Nationals Jun 02 $10 +$9 +90%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 02 $10 +$9 +93%
Boston Red Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 02 $10 +$10 +97%
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes Jun 02 $20 +$8 +42%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Jun 02 $6 $0 +4%
Kansas City Royals vs. Texas Rangers Jun 02 $6 +$5 +79%
Minnesota Twins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 02 $10 +$7 +65%
San Diego Padres vs. Washington Nationals May 31 $10 −$10 -99%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes May 31 $30 −$30 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs May 31 $40 −$40 -99%
Detroit Tigers vs. Chicago White Sox May 29 $10 −$10 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 33¢ $20 1h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 1h
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Chicago White Sox 42¢ $2 7d
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Detroit Tigers 55¢ $10 7d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 52¢ $10 7d
Ilkley: Emerson Jones vs Dalma Galfi BUY Dalma Galfi 57¢ $10 7d
Modena: Noemi Basiletti vs Varvara Lepchenko BUY Varvara Lepchenko 51¢ $10 7d
Tucuman: Juan Estevez vs Matias Soto BUY Matias Soto 53¢ $10 7d
Tucuman: Facundo Mena vs Lorenzo Joaquin Rodriguez BUY Lorenzo Joaquin Rodriguez 50¢ $10 7d
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY New York Yankees 53¢ $10 7d
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins BUY Miami Marlins 58¢ $10 7d
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Seattle Mariners 53¢ $10 7d
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY Boston Red Sox 54¢ $10 7d
ITF Martos: Rigele Te vs Joao Domingues BUY Joao Domingues 58¢ $10 7d
T20 Blast: Essex vs Kent BUY Kent 54¢ $10 7d
T20 Blast: Durham vs Lancashire BUY Lancashire 57¢ $10 7d
Ilkley: Tereza Martincova vs Katie Swan BUY Tereza Martincova 54¢ $10 7d
Ilkley: Taylah Preston vs Harmony Tan BUY Taylah Preston 55¢ $10 7d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Hurricanes 51¢ $20 7d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 54¢ $20 7d
Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 54¢ $3 13d
Athletics vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Chicago Cubs 55¢ $10 13d
Texas Rangers vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY Texas Rangers 48¢ $10 13d
San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Milwaukee Brewers 58¢ $10 13d
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Atlanta Braves 58¢ $10 13d
Kansas City Royals vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Cincinnati Reds 60¢ $10 13d
Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees BUY Cleveland Guardians 42¢ $10 13d
Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 59¢ $10 13d
San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Philadelphia Phillies 66¢ $10 13d
New York Mets vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Seattle Mariners 57¢ $20 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $83.30 · official $83.46 (match) · 360 history records