Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T22:51:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
29 0x29f0…7a60 world 27 markets active 7h ago coverage 489d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate37%10W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days+$6
14 days+$4
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 66% +$3
sports 15% +$2
other 12% +$1
politics 4% +$7
culture 2% −$12
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-8.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +3.3% -6.5% 67% 33% -3.9%
≤30d 14 -2.9% -12.1% 21% 7% -8.8%
≤90d 14 -2.9% -12.1% 21% 7% -8.8%
all 27 +1.6% -8.0% 37% 15% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.0% 15% -9.5%
10% -16.8% 11% -18.1%
15% -24.9% 7% -26.0%
20% -32.2% 7% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 56% · top 2 73% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$4 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

489d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses10 / 17
Open positions0
Markets (closed)27 / 27
History coverage489d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 27 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $47 +$6 +12%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $11 $0 -4%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $42 +$1 +2%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $114 −$3 -2%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $46 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $2 −$1 -55%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $102 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $21 +$2 +10%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $8 $0 -3%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 10 $3 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $3 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $4 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $44 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 05 $24 $0 +0%
Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2025 World Series? Dec 10 $2 $0 +4%
Will federal spending decrease by $1-2t between Q4 2024 and Q2 2025? Dec 10 $2 $0 +1%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jun 24 $1 $0 +1%
Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 23 $5 $0 +0%
Will "Anora" win Best Film Editing at the 2025 Oscars? Mar 20 $12 −$12 -100%
Georgescu banned from Romania election? Mar 19 $4 +$2 +66%
South Alabama vs. Southern Mississippi Mar 02 $13 +$3 +25%
Will Trump issue an executive order on February 26? Mar 02 $14 −$14 -100%
South Dakota vs. North Dakota State Feb 25 $25 $0 +0%
Army vs. Lafayette Feb 25 $9 $0 +0%
USC Upstate vs. High Point Feb 25 $13 $0 +0%
Michigan State vs. Maryland Feb 25 $28 −$1 -5%
Will the CDU/CSU win 25-30% of the vote in the German election? Feb 25 $10 +$18 +192%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 46¢ $8 7h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 46¢ $44 7h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 41¢ $47 9h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 21¢ $10 14h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 16h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $8 16h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $43 22h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 84¢ $42 25h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $20 8d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $15 8d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 42¢ $34 8d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $46 8d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $46 8d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 39¢ $13 9d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 39¢ $20 9d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 42¢ $16 9d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 42¢ $20 9d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes $1 9d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes $2 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 79¢ $50 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 79¢ $40 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 79¢ $10 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 82¢ $40 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 84¢ $38 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 84¢ $3 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 32¢ $15 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 32¢ $8 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 29¢ $10 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 29¢ $11 10d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $4 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 106 history records