Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T16:12:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

29
0x29ef…ddda
other · 758 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$1,007 -8%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$772 · open −$532
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$3,410
Realized−$772
Unrealized−$532
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses196 / 431
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions144
Markets (closed)627 / 758
History coverage63d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day52.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%
Chart Positions 144 History 627 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$43
7 days−$109
14 days−$442
30 days−$366
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will OpenAI release a social network in 2026? No 72¢ 76¢ $261 $275 +$14 (+6%)
Will Tesla sell a Cybercab for 30k or less in 2026? Yes 27¢ 24¢ $280 $255 −$25 (-9%)
Will Waymo launch in Dallas by June 30 2026? Yes 56¢ 29¢ $453 $237 −$216 (-48%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? No 60¢ 60¢ $187 $185 −$2 (-1%)
Will Tesla open orders for the Robovan before 2027? No 70¢ 88¢ $114 $145 +$30 (+27%)
Will Tesla release Optimus by December 31, 2026? No 76¢ 80¢ $103 $110 +$7 (+6%)
Will Waymo operate in 5 cities or less on June 30 2026? No 90¢ 94¢ $96 $101 +$5 (+5%)
Will Waymo launch in Nashville by June 30 2026? Yes 54¢ 32¢ $167 $97 −$69 (-42%)
Will Waymo operate in 11 cities on June 30 2026? No 66¢ 80¢ $60 $72 +$12 (+20%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026? No 75¢ 80¢ $64 $68 +$5 (+7%)
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31? No 78¢ 84¢ $63 $67 +$4 (+7%)
Will Elon Musk tweet "Hyperliquid" by December 31, 2026? No 70¢ 80¢ $56 $64 +$8 (+14%)
Will the Republicans win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 40¢ 40¢ $60 $61 +$1 (+1%)
Will Waymo operate in 10 cities on June 30 2026? No 77¢ 84¢ $48 $52 +$4 (+9%)
Will Neuralink's valuation hit (HIGH) $100B by December 31? No 78¢ 90¢ $39 $45 +$6 (+16%)
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31? No 58¢ 64¢ $40 $45 +$4 (+11%)
Will HYPE flip SOL by December 31? No 82¢ 85¢ $41 $42 +$2 (+4%)
Will Waymo operate in 11 cities on June 30 2026? Yes 19¢ 20¢ $38 $41 +$3 (+8%)
Will Waymo operate in 7 cities on June 30 2026? No 83¢ 51¢ $66 $40 −$25 (-38%)
Will Waymo operate in 12 or more cities on June 30 2026? Yes 11¢ 6¢ $72 $40 −$32 (-45%)
AI bubble burst in 2026? No 79¢ 79¢ $39 $40 +$0 (+1%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? No 42¢ 32¢ $50 $39 −$11 (-22%)
Will OpenAI announce glasses in 2026? No 81¢ 82¢ $36 $37 +$1 (+2%)
Grok 4.4 released by June 30? Yes 37¢ 12¢ $109 $35 −$74 (-68%)
Will Waymo operate in 10 cities on June 30 2026? Yes 9¢ 16¢ $19 $35 +$16 (+82%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $X? Jun 13 $17 −$16 -94%
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SPACE? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $STAR? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 13 $97 −$1 -1%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 13 $196 +$1 +1%
Will Julián Alvarez be in Argentina's Starting 11? Jun 13 $16 $0 -3%
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on June 20, 2026? Jun 13 $6 −$1 -10%
Will Juan Musso be in Argentina's Starting 11? Jun 13 $18 −$2 -8%
Will Czechia be the worst-placed European nation in the 2026 FIFA Worl Jun 13 $1 $0 -24%
Will Norway be the worst-placed European nation in the 2026 FIFA World Jun 13 $2 $0 +4%
Another critical Cloudflare incident by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $8 −$3 -38%
Will João Félix be in Portugal's Starting 11? Jun 13 $5 −$1 -10%
Will Ismael Díaz score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $21 −$2 -11%
Will Eduardo Braide win the Governor of Maranhão election? Jun 13 $5 $0 -10%
Will Elon post "Tesla" on X this week? Jun 13 $5 +$3 +60%
Will Nicolás Otamendi be in Argentina's Starting 11? Jun 13 $16 $0 -1%
Will Warren Zaïre-Emery be in France's Starting 11? Jun 13 $17 −$15 -87%
Will claude-fable-5 be the best AI model on June 20, 2026? Jun 13 $18 $0 +0%
Will South Africa be the worst-placed African nation in the 2026 FIFA Jun 13 $2 $0 -7%
Will Charles De Ketelaere be in Belgium's Starting 11? Jun 13 $5 −$2 -31%
Will Elon Musk be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's I Jun 13 $12 −$12 -100%
Will X Æ A-Xii be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's I Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
SpaceX IPO: Trading Halted for Volatility? Jun 13 $5 +$5 +100%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) AND Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $2 +$3 +168%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $14 +$5 +37%
Will Spencer Pratt call for 1st round recount? Jun 12 $10 −$1 -9%
Will Shivon Zilis be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX' Jun 11 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Kimbal Musk be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's Jun 11 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the 2026 United Left primary for the 2027 French presidential ele Jun 10 $14 −$4 -28%
Will SpaceX acquire Cursor by December 31, 2026? Jun 10 $3 −$1 -42%
GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026? Jun 10 $2 +$2 +117%
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first? Jun 10 $1 +$2 +172%
Will Waymo operate in 6 cities on June 30 2026? Jun 10 $115 +$69 +60%
Will Pamela Evette win the first round of the 2026 South Carolina Gove Jun 10 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Alan Wilson win the first round of the 2026 South Carolina Govern Jun 10 $5 $0 +0%
Will Graham Platner win between 65% and 70% of votes in the Maine Sena Jun 09 $14 −$1 -11%
Will Christina Koch be chosen for the Artemis III mission? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Kimiya Yui be chosen for the Artemis III mission? Jun 09 $0 $0 -100%
Will Takuya Onishi be chosen for the Artemis III mission? Jun 09 $0 $0 -100%
Will Andre Douglas be chosen for the Artemis III mission? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Graham Platner win between 70% and 75% of votes in the Maine Sena Jun 09 $11 −$1 -5%
Will Pamela Evette win the first round of the South Carolina Republica Jun 09 $3 $0 +0%
SpaceX Starship fully reusable before 2027? Jun 09 $2 $0 -8%
Will Spencer Pratt finish second in the first round of the 2026 Los An Jun 09 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 202 Jun 09 $62 −$62 -100%
Will Graham Platner win more than 90% of votes in the Maine Senate Dem Jun 09 $1 $0 +5%
Will Graham Platner win between 85% and 90% of votes in the Maine Sena Jun 09 $1 $0 -31%
Will Graham Platner win between 80% and 85% of votes in the Maine Sena Jun 09 $2 +$1 +39%
Will Graham Platner win between 75% and 80% of votes in the Maine Sena Jun 09 $4 $0 +4%
NBA Finals: Will there be a Breen Bang in Game 3? Jun 09 $24 +$3 +13%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 44% −$813
politics 21% −$288
tech 10% +$111
world 10% −$97
sports 7% −$77
finance 3% −$10
economics 2% −$105
crypto 1% −$2
culture 1% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 62¢ $6 19m
Will OpenAI release a social network in 2026? BUY No 75¢ $8 44m
Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of July 2026? SELL No 40¢ $2 55m
Will OpenAI release a social network in 2026? BUY No 73¢ $37 1h
Will Waymo operate in 7 cities on June 30 2026? SELL No 53¢ $27 1h
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 97¢ $97 1h
Will OpenAI release a social network in 2026? BUY No 73¢ $20 1h
Will OpenAI release a social network in 2026? BUY No 73¢ $37 1h
Will OpenAI release a social network in 2026? BUY No 73¢ $37 1h
Will OpenAI release a social network in 2026? BUY No 73¢ $74 1h
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $197 1h
Will OpenAI release a social network in 2026? BUY No 73¢ $24 1h
Will OpenAI release a social network in 2026? BUY No 72¢ $9 1h
Will OpenAI release a social network in 2026? BUY No 71¢ $10 1h
Will IR Iran (20) be the highest-ranked team eliminated in the 2026 FI BUY No 88¢ $18 1h
Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of July 2026? BUY No 43¢ $9 2h
GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026? BUY No 5¢ $1 2h
Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 62¢ $19 2h
Next Mythos-Class Model released by July 31, 2026? BUY No 75¢ $8 2h
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 50% on Humanity’s Last E BUY Yes 10¢ $1 2h
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by July 31? BUY Yes 55¢ $6 2h
Will two SpaceX Starships dock together by December 31, 2026? BUY No 70¢ $4 2h
Will two SpaceX Starships dock together by December 31, 2026? BUY No 69¢ $3 2h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY 43¢ $2 2h
Will Julián Alvarez be in Argentina's Starting 11? SELL No 35¢ $5 2h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score BUY No 67¢ $14 2h
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on June 20, 2026? SELL No 26¢ $5 2h
Will Juan Musso be in Argentina's Starting 11? SELL No 80¢ $16 2h
Will Julián Alvarez be in Argentina's Starting 11? SELL No 35¢ $2 2h
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on June 20, 2026? BUY No 28¢ $1 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-24.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 59 -19.8% -27.4% 25% 15% -20.1%
≤30d 184 -16.7% -24.6% 30% 15% -21.8%
≤90d 627 -16.1% -24.1% 31% 15% -17.3%
all 627 -16.1% -24.1% 31% 15% -17.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover52.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -24.1% 15% -17.3%
10% ← realistic here -31.3% 10% -25.2%
15% -38.0% 7% -32.5%
20% -44.1% 5% -39.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,410.50 · official $3,412.32 (match) · 3500 history records