Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T10:19:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
29 0x29ea…bafb crypto 11 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$5 (+2%) realized +$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate36%4W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day28.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 79% −$29
sports 19% −$24
other 2% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-21.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -12.9% -21.2% 36% 36% -33.9%
≤30d 11 -12.9% -21.2% 36% 36% -33.9%
≤90d 11 -12.9% -21.2% 36% 36% -33.9%
all 11 -12.9% -21.2% 36% 36% -33.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover28.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -21.2% 36% -33.9%
10% ← realistic here -28.8% 36% -40.2%
15% -35.6% 18% -46.0%
20% -42.0% 18% -51.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 59% · top 2 77% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -27% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -27% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$13 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.41 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses4 / 7
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)11 / 11
History coverage1d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day28.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 11 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 20 $46 −$43 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 20 $24 +$23 +94%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs TDK - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $20 −$12 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 20 $2 +$5 +223%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Walczaki - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $20 −$12 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 20 $41 −$11 -27%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 20, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 20 $3 −$2 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 20 $16 +$4 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 20 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 20 $21 +$7 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 20 $10 −$5 -48%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $40 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET SELL Up 39¢ $47 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $3 1h
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs TDK - Map 1 Winner SELL TDK 9¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $21 1h
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs TDK - Map 1 Winner SELL TDK 12¢ $5 1h
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Walczaki - Map 1 Winner SELL Infinite 11¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $2 1h
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Walczaki - Map 1 Winner BUY Infinite 25¢ $20 1h
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs TDK - Map 1 Winner BUY TDK 25¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $9 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $9 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $11 2h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 20, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET SELL Down 5¢ $1 2h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 20, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $8 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $8 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $8 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET SELL Down 47¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $5 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 32 history records