Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:04:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
29 0x29e6…2445 other 17 markets active 1h ago coverage 473d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$3 (+1%) realized +$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate75%12W / 4L
Drawdown9%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$35now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 38% +$1
other 35% +$1
crypto 18% $0
weather 6% $0
politics 1% $0
economics 1% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-13.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 4 +0.8% -8.8% 75% 0% -8.7%
≤90d 4 +0.8% -8.8% 75% 0% -8.7%
all 16 -4.6% -13.6% 75% 0% -8.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.6% 0% -8.4%
10% -21.9% 0% -17.2%
15% -29.5% 0% -25.2%
20% -36.4% 0% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 59% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -11% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×2.62 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×7.87 per $1 lost it wins $7.87
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

473d coverage
Net worth$35
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses12 / 4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)16 / 17
History coverage473d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown9%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? No 91¢ 90¢ $35 $35 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $35 $0 +1%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 26 $31 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 25 $32 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 24 $34 +$1 +3%
Will Virgil Alexandru Zidaru be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Dec 14 $2 $0 +1%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Dec 14 $2 $0 +4%
Will Tim Stokely buy TikTok before July? Dec 10 $1 $0 +5%
Will CF Monterrey win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 10 $0 $0 -100%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 21 $1 $0 +2%
Will Elena Lasconi win the Romanian presidential election? May 20 $2 $0 +1%
2025 March hottest on record? Mar 27 $17 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $78000 on Mar 28? Mar 26 $16 +$1 +4%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 again by March 31? Mar 24 $17 $0 -2%
Will Netherlands win Eurovision 2025? Mar 23 $16 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be 45°F or below on March 20? Mar 21 $16 $0 +1%
Will Maya Moore make the 2025 Class of the Naismith Basketball Hall of Mar 19 $15 +$1 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $35 1h
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 85¢ $36 22d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 84¢ $35 22d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab SELL No 98¢ $13 22d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab SELL No 98¢ $19 22d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab BUY No 98¢ $10 22d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab BUY No 98¢ $22 22d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $31 23d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $32 23d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 84¢ $35 24d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY No 81¢ $34 24d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? BUY No 96¢ $2 363d
Will CF Monterrey win the FIFA Club World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 373d
Will CF Monterrey win the FIFA Club World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 373d
Will Virgil Alexandru Zidaru be the next Mayor of Bucharest? BUY No 99¢ $2 379d
Will Tim Stokely buy TikTok before July? BUY No 95¢ $1 405d
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after June 2025 meeting? BUY No 98¢ $1 419d
Will Elena Lasconi win the Romanian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $2 433d
2025 March hottest on record? SELL No 98¢ $17 447d
2025 March hottest on record? BUY No 98¢ $17 448d
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $78000 on Mar 28? SELL No 100¢ $17 448d
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $78000 on Mar 28? BUY No 96¢ $16 450d
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 again by March 31? SELL No 97¢ $16 450d
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 again by March 31? BUY No 98¢ $17 451d
Will Netherlands win Eurovision 2025? SELL No 94¢ $16 451d
Will Netherlands win Eurovision 2025? BUY No 94¢ $16 453d
Will the highest temperature in NYC be 45°F or below on March 20? BUY No 99¢ $16 455d
Will Maya Moore make the 2025 Class of the Naismith Basketball Hall of SELL Yes 90¢ $16 455d
Will Maya Moore make the 2025 Class of the Naismith Basketball Hall of BUY Yes 84¢ $15 473d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $35.30 · official $35.30 (match) · 36 history records