Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:35:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
29 0x29e1…dbf1 crypto 49 markets active 1h ago coverage 229d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Wins small, loses big
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! loses its big bets
Total PnL +$15 (+0%) realized +$15 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate87%39W / 6L
Whale WR33%big bets
Drawdown63%max
Avg bet$313per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$96now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 47% +$16
politics 37% −$5
crypto 13% +$3
other 2% +$1
world 1% +$1
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 6 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 15 +3.4% -6.4% 100% 7% -9.0%
all 45 -0.4% -9.8% 87% 4% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 4% -9.4%
10% -18.5% 4% -18.1%
15% -26.3% 2% -26.0%
20% -33.6% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 81% · top 2 86% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 33% (≥$500) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early -4% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.35 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.28 per $1 lost it wins $2.28
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

229d coverage
Net worth$96
Realized+$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)87%
Wins / losses39 / 6
Whale WR (big bets)33%
Open positions4
Markets (closed)45 / 49
History coverage229d
Avg bet$313
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown63%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 45 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? No 99¢ 100¢ $75 $76 +$0 (+1%)
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 99¢ 99¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+0%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 94¢ 95¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Solana reach $170 in May? Jun 17 $17 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.00 in May? Jun 17 $20 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? Jun 17 $37 $0 +0%
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? May 20 $12 $0 +0%
Will Microsoft have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? May 20 $13 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? May 20 $94 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026? Apr 17 $10 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? Apr 17 $11 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026? Apr 17 $15 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? Apr 17 $27 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? Apr 17 $54 +$1 +2%
Hornets vs. Spurs Mar 25 $1 $0 +47%
Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 March 9-15? Mar 25 $10 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? Mar 25 $22 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from March 14 to March 16, 2026? Mar 25 $30 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from February 19 to February 21, 202 Mar 14 $1 $0 +24%
Will Benfica win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 14 $2,414 −$2 -0%
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Mar 14 $12 $0 +0%
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Mar 14 $13 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in February? Mar 14 $20 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in February? Mar 14 $25 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.80 on February 13? Feb 21 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.60 and $1.70 on February 12? Feb 21 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be greater than $1.90 on February 13? Feb 21 $22 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January? Feb 12 $11 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from January 23 to January 30, 2026? Feb 12 $60 $0 +0%
Xi Jinping out in 2025? Jan 22 $11 $0 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from December 23 to December 30, 2025? Jan 22 $14 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from December 19 to December 26, 2025? Jan 22 $14 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 22 $21 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $17,000 by December 31? Jan 22 $1,297 $0 +0%
Wizards vs. Grizzlies Dec 21 $2,286 +$23 +1%
Will Leeds win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Dec 21 $2,311 −$2 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 20 $2,328 −$2 -0%
Thunder vs. Timberwolves Dec 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 20 $2,251 −$2 -0%
Will PSV win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 20 $140 $0 -0%
Will Solana reach $300 in November? Dec 19 $5 $0 +1%
Will the Tennessee Titans win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 19 $13 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $5,600 in November? Dec 19 $23 $0 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from November 18 to November 25, 2025? Dec 19 $36 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $7,000 in November? Dec 19 $216 +$2 +1%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model on October 31? Nov 04 $6 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $2.80 and $2.90 on October 31? Nov 04 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $2.10 on October 31? Nov 04 $220 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $31 1h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 94¢ $3 1h
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $44 27d
Will XRP reach $3.00 in May? BUY No 100¢ $20 27d
Will Solana reach $170 in May? BUY No 100¢ $17 27d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $37 27d
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $94 60d
Will Microsoft have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY No 100¢ $13 60d
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY No 100¢ $12 60d
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $27 83d
Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $11 83d
Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 83d
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $15 83d
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $22 94d
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $15 94d
Hornets vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 68¢ $1 94d
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from March 14 to March 16, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $30 94d
Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 March 9-15? BUY No 100¢ $10 94d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in February? BUY No 100¢ $20 115d
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in February? BUY No 100¢ $25 115d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from February 19 to February 21, 202 BUY No 81¢ $1 115d
Will the price of XRP be greater than $1.90 on February 13? BUY No 100¢ $22 124d
Will the price of XRP be between $1.60 and $1.70 on February 12? BUY No 100¢ $12 124d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.80 on February 13? BUY No 100¢ $12 124d
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? BUY No 100¢ $13 124d
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? BUY No 100¢ $12 124d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January? BUY No 100¢ $11 146d
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from January 23 to January 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $60 146d
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $39 146d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $96.31 · official $96.31 (match) · 100 history records