Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T15:58:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
29 0x29e0…9a86 crypto 77 markets active 2h ago coverage 65d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,637 (+9%) realized +$810 · open +$827
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate35%24W / 44L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$241per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$49est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$4,316now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$37
14 days+$468
30 days+$468
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 82% +$1,107
crypto 6% +$42
other 6% +$2
sports 6% +$175
tech 1% +$23
culture 0% −$45
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-6.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -86.9% -88.1% 12% 0% -32.9%
≤30d 19 +69.0% +52.9% 26% 21% -2.0%
≤90d 68 +3.5% -6.4% 35% 29% -6.4%
all 68 +3.5% -6.4% 35% 29% -6.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.4% 29% -6.4%
10% -15.3% 26% -15.3%
15% -23.5% 21% -23.5%
20% -31.0% 19% -31.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 50% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -13% → late +20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$62 vs −$23 · ×2.69 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.47 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

65d coverage
Net worth$4,316
Realized+$810
Unrealized+$827
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses24 / 44
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$49
Open positions9
Markets (closed)68 / 77
History coverage65d
Avg bet$241
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 68 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 71¢ 92¢ $2,705 $3,489 +$784 (+29%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 15¢ $237 $326 +$89 (+37%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 19¢ $201 $207 +$6 (+3%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 7? No 75¢ 72¢ $100 $96 −$4 (-4%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $50 $45 −$5 (-10%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $50 $45 −$5 (-11%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $50 $39 −$11 (-21%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 8¢ $45 $38 −$7 (-16%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 6¢ $50 $31 −$19 (-38%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 21 $6 −$5 -95%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $100 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 18 $5 +$120 +2243%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 18 $3,617 +$441 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 18 $11 +$31 +296%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 18 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 18 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 18 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 18 $11 +$29 +280%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 18 $1,575 −$34 -2%
Exact Score: United States 0 - 2 Paraguay? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $50 −$39 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET May 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET May 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET May 27 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET May 27 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET May 27 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET May 27 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 26 $1,023 +$175 +17%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? May 16 $2,420 +$126 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET May 08 $105 −$105 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET May 08 $10 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET May 08 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET May 08 $10 −$9 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET May 08 $5 +$6 +112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET May 08 $5 +$1 +23%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 08 $3,191 −$205 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET May 01 $1 +$1 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Apr 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 25 $96 +$23 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Apr 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Apr 25 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Apr 24 $10 +$4 +38%
Will "Michael" score at least 45 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer? Apr 24 $10 −$8 -76%
Will "Michael" score at least 40 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer? Apr 24 $48 −$30 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Apr 23 $110 −$110 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Apr 23 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Apr 23 $39 +$13 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Apr 23 $120 +$29 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Apr 23 $14 −$4 -26%
Will "Michael" score at least 25 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer? Apr 23 $10 −$8 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Apr 23 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Apr 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 7? BUY No 75¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $6 5d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $105 5d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 95¢ $100 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $5 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $5 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $5 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $5 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 85¢ $400 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 43¢ $418 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 43¢ $418 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $11 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $11 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $11 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $11 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $11 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 61¢ $389 8d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $197 8d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 18¢ $196 8d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $362 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 55¢ $363 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 57¢ $377 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 62¢ $377 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 87¢ $775 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 62¢ $775 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 63¢ $1,575 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,315.51 · official $4,315.51 (match) · 238 history records