Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T21:26:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
29 0x29df…b5f4 crypto 118 markets active 2h ago coverage 557d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$80 (-4%) realized −$80 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate95%110W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$37now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 44% −$14
other 27% +$2
politics 11% +$1
weather 6% $0
world 4% −$70
finance 3% $0
tech 2% $0
culture 2% $0
economics 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.4% -9.1% 100% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 30 +0.4% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.2%
≤90d 88 -0.8% -10.3% 97% 0% -10.0%
all 116 -1.8% -11.2% 95% 0% -13.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.2% 0% -13.4%
10% -19.7% 0% -21.7%
15% -27.4% 0% -29.2%
20% -34.6% 0% -36.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$14 · ×0.0 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.07 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

557d coverage
Net worth$37
Realized−$80
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)95%
Wins / losses110 / 6
Open positions2
Markets (closed)116 / 118
History coverage557d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 116 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 21? No 100¢ 100¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+0%)
Will Șerban Matei be the next Prime Minister of Romania? No 99¢ 100¢ $11 $11 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will global temperature increase by between 1.15ºC and 1.19ºC in May 2 Jun 20 $11 $0 +1%
GPT-5.6 released by June 8, 2026? Jun 20 $19 $0 +0%
Will Armenia Alliance win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National Jun 20 $25 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 07 $20 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on June 4? Jun 05 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 3? Jun 04 $18 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $16 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $27 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 1000-1039 tweets in May 2026? Jun 01 $15 $0 +0%
Will Prabowo Subianto cease to be President of Indonesia by May 31, 20 Jun 01 $16 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $66,000 May 25-31? Jun 01 $20 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 30? May 31 $11 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? May 30 $13 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 30 $25 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 28? May 29 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 28? May 29 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 27? May 27 $26 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 26? May 26 $13 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $13 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 26? May 26 $25 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 25? May 25 $17 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? May 25 $32 $0 +0%
Will "COWARD by Lukas DHONT" win Palme d'Or at the 2026 Cannes Film Fe May 24 $11 $0 +0%
Will "MOULIN by László NEMES" win Palme d'Or at the 2026 Cannes Film F May 24 $25 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 23? May 23 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 23? May 23 $14 $0 +0%
Will Russell McAlmond be the Republican nominee for Senate in Oregon? May 23 $11 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 22? May 22 $11 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 22 $22 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 21? May 22 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 20? May 21 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 20? May 21 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 20? May 21 $14 $0 +0%
Will Will Boyd win the 2026 Alabama Governor Democratic primary electi May 20 $25 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 on May 18? May 19 $12 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on May 18? May 19 $14 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,900 May 11-17? May 18 $20 $0 +0%
Will David Puig win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 18 $22 $0 +0%
Will Greece be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final? May 17 $12 $0 +1%
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $14 $0 +0%
Will Australia win the televote for Eurovision 2026? May 17 $18 $0 +0%
Will Cyprus win the televote for Eurovision 2026? May 17 $19 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on May 11? May 12 $16 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 11? May 12 $19 $0 +1%
Will global temperature increase by between 1.25ºC and 1.29ºC in April May 12 $20 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $88,000 May 4-10? May 11 $14 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $72,000 May 4-10? May 11 $25 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 7? May 08 $23 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 7? May 08 $30 $0 +0%
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 350M by May 1? May 07 $18 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $25 1h
Will global temperature increase by between 1.15ºC and 1.19ºC in May 2 BUY No 99¢ $11 12d
GPT-5.6 released by June 8, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $19 13d
Will Armenia Alliance win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National BUY No 100¢ $25 15d
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $13 16d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $20 17d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 3? BUY Yes 100¢ $18 17d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $16 18d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $27 19d
Will Șerban Matei be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY No 99¢ $11 20d
Will Elon Musk post 1000-1039 tweets in May 2026? BUY No 100¢ $15 21d
Will Bitcoin dip to $66,000 May 25-31? BUY No 100¢ $20 21d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? BUY No 100¢ $13 22d
Will Prabowo Subianto cease to be President of Indonesia by May 31, 20 BUY No 100¢ $16 22d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 30? BUY Yes 100¢ $11 22d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 28? BUY Yes 100¢ $30 23d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 27? BUY No 100¢ $26 24d
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $25 24d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 28? BUY No 100¢ $10 25d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 26? BUY No 99¢ $13 25d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 26? BUY No 100¢ $25 26d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 25? BUY No 100¢ $17 26d
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $13 27d
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $16 27d
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $16 27d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 23? BUY No 100¢ $14 28d
Will "COWARD by Lukas DHONT" win Palme d'Or at the 2026 Cannes Film Fe BUY No 100¢ $11 28d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 23? BUY No 100¢ $13 29d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 22? BUY Yes 100¢ $11 29d
Will "MOULIN by László NEMES" win Palme d'Or at the 2026 Cannes Film F BUY No 100¢ $25 30d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36.68 · official $36.68 (match) · 243 history records