Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T06:03:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

29
0x29df…aeec
weather · 197 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$422 -7%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$468 · open −$11
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$23
Realized−$468
Unrealized−$11
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses102 / 92
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions3
Markets (closed)194 / 197
History coverage44d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day27.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%
Chart Positions 3 History 194 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$32
7 days−$56
14 days−$258
30 days−$280
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 14? No 49¢ 46¢ $24 $23 −$1 (-5%)
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score Yes 43¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-99%)
Türkiye to score first vs. Australia? Yes 65¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C on June 6? No 60¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs Hanwha Life Esports Challengers - Game 2 Winner Hanwha Life Esports Challengers 65¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on June 7? Yes 54¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 13? No 40¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Arsenal FC vs. Burnley FC: O/U 1.5 Over 87¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on June 1? Yes 34¢ 0¢ $45 $0 −$45 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 33°C on June 6? Yes 49¢ 0¢ $24 $0 −$24 (-100%)
Internationaux de Strasbourg: Alexandra Eala vs Oleksandra Oliynykova Alexandra Eala 60¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 5? Yes 88¢ 0¢ $51 $0 −$51 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $11 $0 -0%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$9 -91%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 94-95°F on June 13? Jun 13 $8 −$4 -44%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 12? Jun 12 $10 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on June 12? Jun 12 $9 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on Ju Jun 12 $24 +$2 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 −$2 -34%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $24 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 12? Jun 12 $7 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 11? Jun 11 $13 −$1 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June Jun 11 $20 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 11? Jun 11 $35 −$11 -31%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 11? Jun 11 $4 $0 +11%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 10 $25 +$2 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 10? Jun 10 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 9? Jun 09 $21 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 8? Jun 08 $27 +$3 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 8? Jun 08 $45 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 8? Jun 08 $23 +$2 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 8? Jun 08 $16 +$4 +25%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 07 $19 −$3 -18%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju Jun 07 $39 −$23 -58%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on Ju Jun 07 $2 −$1 -31%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on Ju Jun 06 $28 −$6 -21%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 6? Jun 06 $42 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C on June 6? Jun 06 $6 −$6 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 33°C on June 6? Jun 06 $24 −$24 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 6? Jun 06 $2 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 6? Jun 05 $32 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju Jun 05 $73 −$5 -7%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $3 $0 -4%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $3 $0 -9%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 5? Jun 05 $52 −$51 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 5? Jun 05 $60 +$4 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 5? Jun 05 $8 −$6 -72%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 5? Jun 05 $24 −$2 -11%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 25°C on June 5? Jun 05 $6 $0 -5%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 5? Jun 05 $4 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju Jun 04 $54 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 4? Jun 04 $95 +$9 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on June 4? Jun 04 $6 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 4? Jun 04 $26 $0 -0%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 14°C on June 4? Jun 04 $54 −$12 -21%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 03 $72 +$3 +4%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 3? Jun 03 $17 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 3? Jun 03 $19 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 02 $24 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 2? Jun 02 $11 −$1 -6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 87% −$359
sports 5% −$31
finance 4% −$27
other 3% −$74
politics 0% +$11
crypto 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 43¢ $5 26m
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 92¢ $11 26m
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 92¢ $11 27m
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 28m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 14? BUY No 49¢ $24 40m
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 1h
Türkiye to score first vs. Australia? BUY Yes 65¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 94-95°F on June 13? SELL Yes 10¢ $5 12h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 94-95°F on June 13? BUY Yes 17¢ $0 16h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 94-95°F on June 13? BUY Yes 17¢ $6 16h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 94-95°F on June 13? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 16h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 94-95°F on June 13? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 16h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 13? SELL No 49¢ $1 22h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 13? SELL No 49¢ $5 22h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 13? BUY No 40¢ $6 25h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 13? BUY No 40¢ $7 25h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 13? BUY No 40¢ $1 25h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 13? BUY No 47¢ $2 25h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 13? BUY No 47¢ $2 25h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 13? BUY No 47¢ $2 25h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 13? BUY No 40¢ $5 25h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 13? BUY No 40¢ $2 25h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 12? SELL No 43¢ $5 35h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 12? SELL No 44¢ $2 36h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 12? SELL No 44¢ $3 37h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on June 12? SELL No 49¢ $8 37h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on June 12? SELL No 49¢ $2 38h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 12? BUY No 42¢ $1 38h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 12? BUY No 42¢ $5 38h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 12? BUY No 42¢ $2 39h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-19.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -16.1% -24.1% 56% 8% -21.0%
≤30d 145 -10.8% -19.3% 54% 10% -15.4%
≤90d 194 -11.2% -19.7% 53% 11% -16.3%
all 194 -11.2% -19.7% 53% 11% -16.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover27.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.7% 11% -16.3%
10% ← realistic here -27.4% 5% -24.3%
15% -34.4% 2% -31.6%
20% -40.8% 1% -38.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $23.31 · official $26.74 · 1288 history records