Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T21:05:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
29 0x29de…fc93 other 54 markets active 2h ago coverage 577d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$5 (+0%) realized +$5 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate29%15W / 37L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$335per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$91now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 75% −$14
politics 13% −$6
other 9% +$1
crypto 2% +$1
sports 1% +$22
world 1% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-2.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 13 +3.2% -6.6% 23% 8% -8.3%
≤90d 43 +10.1% -0.4% 28% 16% -8.6%
all 52 +8.2% -2.1% 29% 13% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.1% 13% -9.5%
10% -11.5% 13% -18.2%
15% -20.0% 13% -26.1%
20% -27.9% 12% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
53% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late +11% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$1 · ×2.67 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.08 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

577d coverage
Net worth$91
Realized+$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses15 / 37
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)52 / 54
History coverage577d
Avg bet$335
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 52 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $64 $64 +$0 (+0%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,300 in June? No 99¢ 99¢ $27 $27 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 19 $18 $0 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 14 $22 $0 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 13 $21 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 07 $21 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $18 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 05 $21 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in May? Jun 05 $22 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in May? Jun 05 $47 $0 +0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 28 $116 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 27 $19 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 26 $16 $0 -0%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 22 $12 +$5 +44%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 21 $11 $0 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 20 $99 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 19 $16 $0 -0%
Will Yair Golan be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 18 $93 $0 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win on 2026-05-13? May 18 $11 +$8 +73%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 13 $87 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 12 $81 $0 -0%
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 11 $84 $0 -0%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 11 $5 +$8 +165%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 08 $77 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $157 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 06 $246 $0 -0%
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 02 $77 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 02 $80 $0 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 02 $76 $0 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 01 $77 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 01 $78 $0 -0%
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 23 $163 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $84 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 22 $77 $0 -0%
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $81 $0 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $77 $0 -0%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? Apr 09 $6 −$6 -100%
Sabres vs. Rangers Apr 09 $6 +$5 +72%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Apr 09 $10 +$6 +62%
Blue Jackets vs. Red Wings Apr 08 $9 +$9 +104%
Knicks vs. Hawks Apr 08 $5 +$5 +105%
Cavaliers vs. Grizzlies Apr 08 $11 +$1 +10%
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in March? Apr 06 $23 $0 +0%
Based FDV above $800M one day after launch? Apr 06 $45 $0 +1%
Zadar: Jonas Forejtek vs Andrej Nedic Mar 27 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in February? Mar 05 $85 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $6,000 in January? Feb 13 $85 $0 +0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 18 $13,515 −$14 -0%
Will Solana reach $210 in January? Jan 18 $10 $0 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 10 $1 $0 -1%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 03 $19 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $15 −$1 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ethereum reach $2,300 in June? BUY No 99¢ $27 1h
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $18 10h
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $18 11h
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $22 5d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $22 5d
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju BUY No 100¢ $64 5d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $21 6d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $21 6d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $21 12d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $21 12d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $18 13d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $18 13d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $21 14d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $21 14d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $17 22d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $17 22d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $19 23d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $19 23d
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in May? BUY No 100¢ $22 24d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $16 24d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $16 24d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $15 27d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $15 28d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $11 29d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $11 29d
Cavaliers vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 69¢ $12 29d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $16 30d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $16 30d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $16 31d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $16 31d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $91.40 · official $91.40 (match) · 214 history records