Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:42:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
29 0x29de…3382 other 39 markets active 0h ago coverage 445d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$5 (+1%) realized +$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate39%15W / 23L
Drawdown28%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 43% +$1
other 37% $0
economics 7% +$1
politics 6% $0
culture 5% +$1
crypto 2% +$3
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.3% -9.8% 29% 0% -9.0%
≤30d 10 -0.1% -9.6% 40% 0% -9.2%
≤90d 10 -0.1% -9.6% 40% 0% -9.2%
all 38 -0.5% -10.0% 39% 5% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 5% -8.9%
10% -18.6% 5% -17.6%
15% -26.5% 3% -25.6%
20% -33.7% 3% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 58% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
87% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×2.72 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.72 per $1 lost it wins $2.72
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

445d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses15 / 23
Open positions1
Markets (closed)38 / 39
History coverage445d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown28%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 38 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 20 $40 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 19 $61 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $89 +$2 +3%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $3 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $33 $0 -0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $8 −$1 -13%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $2 $0 +9%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 12 $2 $0 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 12 $35 $0 +1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 11 $35 −$1 -2%
Will Gavin Newsom be the first leader out in 2025? Oct 23 $0 $0 -100%
Will the Arizona Cardinals win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 07 $25 $0 -0%
Will the Atlanta Falcons win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 07 $25 $0 -0%
Will "Jurassic World" Opening Weekend Box Office be more than $150m? Jul 07 $24 +$1 +3%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jul 06 $15 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $130K in July? Jul 06 $8 +$2 +27%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 60% and 100% on August 1 Jul 06 $23 $0 +0%
Will Alex de Minaur win Wimbledon 2025? Jul 06 $23 $0 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Jul 04 $22 +$1 +3%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? Jul 03 $5 $0 -2%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after July 2025 meeting? Jul 03 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Jul 03 $23 $0 +0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 02 $22 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? Jul 02 $22 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 02 $22 $0 -0%
Will Juventus win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jul 01 $21 $0 +1%
Will Borussia Dortmund win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jul 01 $5 $0 -3%
Will Virgil Alexandru Zidaru be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jul 01 $22 $0 +0%
Will Trump announce Larry Kudlow as next Fed Chair? Jun 24 $21 $0 +0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 19 $2 $0 +2%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 30 $2 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $120k in April? Apr 09 $2 $0 -14%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Apr 07 $24 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? Apr 07 $23 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $210 in April? Apr 04 $1 +$1 +70%
Will Florida win the 2025 NCAA Tournament? Apr 04 $6 $0 -2%
Liverpool wins the Premier League? Apr 04 $1 $0 -3%
Will Southampton be relegated? Apr 03 $23 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 51¢ $40 9m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 51¢ $40 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $4 6h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $4 9h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $22 22h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $22 24h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 64¢ $40 26h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 64¢ $19 26h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 64¢ $20 26h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 72¢ $40 37h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $40 37h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 34¢ $8 43h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 34¢ $19 43h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 33¢ $7 46h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 33¢ $14 46h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 33¢ $6 46h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $3 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 9¢ $3 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 31¢ $22 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 31¢ $3 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 29¢ $15 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 29¢ $8 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $25 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $9 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $33 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 20¢ $7 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 23¢ $8 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 6d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.09 · official $0.09 (match) · 148 history records