Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T17:41:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

29
0x29db…19c3
sports · 155 markets active 1h ago
0.5score
−$24 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$147 · open −$149
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$361
Realized+$147
Unrealized−$149
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses62 / 85
Est. fees paid−$225
Open positions8
Markets (closed)147 / 155
History coverage29d
Avg bet$101
Trades / day12.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%
Chart Positions 8 History 147 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$458
7 days+$505
14 days+$583
30 days+$147
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Map Handicap: LGC (-1.5) vs PARIVISION (+1.5) Legacy 54¢ 64¢ $148 $176 +$27 (+18%)
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 9¢ 5¢ $124 $71 −$53 (-43%)
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $49 $54 +$5 (+10%)
Will MOUZ win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $74 $29 −$45 (-60%)
Will MOUZ qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs? Yes 58¢ 30¢ $25 $13 −$12 (-47%)
Will FUT win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $49 $9 −$40 (-81%)
Will Falcons qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs? No 24¢ 20¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-16%)
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner PARIVISION 15¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Monte 5¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $61 −$35 -57%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $348 −$20 -6%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $77 −$77 -100%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Team Falcons (-3.5) vs Monte (+3.5) Jun 13 $76 +$89 +117%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $77 −$77 -100%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) Jun 13 $455 −$273 -60%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $41 −$41 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $302 +$58 +19%
Will B8 qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs? Jun 12 $46 −$29 -63%
Will G2 win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 12 $26 +$1 +6%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Spirit (-3.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+3.5) Jun 12 $253 −$40 -16%
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs Legacy (+1.5) Jun 12 $346 +$465 +135%
Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs B8 (+1.5) Jun 12 $303 −$303 -100%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $203 −$43 -21%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $168 −$168 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $203 −$203 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $107 +$122 +115%
Map Handicap: AUR (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) Jun 11 $253 +$134 +53%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs B8 (+1.5) Jun 11 $254 +$256 +101%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $491 +$357 +73%
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 11 $92 −$19 -21%
Stephon Castle: Points O/U 15.5 Jun 11 $101 −$101 -100%
Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 11.5 Jun 11 $91 −$91 -100%
Karl-Anthony Towns: Rebounds O/U 11.5 Jun 11 $66 +$46 +71%
HSBC Championships: Victoria Mboko vs Karolina Pliskova Jun 11 $51 −$51 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 10 $355 −$23 -6%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 - Map 2 Winner Jun 10 $21 −$21 -100%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 09 $26 −$26 -100%
Will BIG qualify to Stage 3 at IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 09 $279 +$90 +32%
Will B8 qualify to Stage 3 at IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 09 $179 +$221 +123%
Will Legacy qualify to Stage 3 at IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 09 $96 −$96 -100%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $107 −$107 -100%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $127 +$90 +71%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Victor Wembanyama: Assists O/U 3.5 Jun 09 $36 +$48 +135%
Jalen Brunson: Points O/U 25.5 Jun 09 $56 +$38 +68%
Stephon Castle: Points O/U 15.5 Jun 09 $51 +$42 +82%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $163 +$31 +19%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $107 −$107 -100%
Map Handicap: BB (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) Jun 08 $20 −$20 -100%
Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs BIG (+1.5) Jun 08 $161 +$179 +112%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $122 +$9 +8%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $104 −$33 -32%
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: G2 (-3.5) vs FUT Esports (+3.5) Jun 07 $101 +$63 +62%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $76 +$75 +98%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $147 +$58 +40%
Counter-Strike: FlyQuest vs paiN - Map 1 Winner Jun 07 $31 −$31 -100%
Counter-Strike: FlyQuest vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $155 +$100 +65%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 89% +$65
other 10% −$86
crypto 0% +$30
world 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner BUY PARIVISION 23¢ $5 53m
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner BUY PARIVISION 14¢ $10 57m
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner BUY PARIVISION 15¢ $15 57m
Will MOUZ qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs? BUY Yes 58¢ $25 1h
Will MOUZ win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $26 1h
Map Handicap: LGC (-1.5) vs PARIVISION (+1.5) BUY Legacy 54¢ $152 1h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner SELL PARIVISION 13¢ $14 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL MOUZ 8¢ $26 1h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner BUY PARIVISION 23¢ $25 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 14¢ $10 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 18¢ $51 1h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage SELL Team Falcons 95¢ $417 2h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY Monte 5¢ $21 2h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY Team Falcons 75¢ $252 2h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY Team Falcons 65¢ $76 3h
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Team Falcons (-3.5) vs Monte (+3.5) SELL Monte 99¢ $165 3h
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Team Falcons (-3.5) vs Monte (+3.5) BUY Monte 44¢ $76 4h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY G2 12¢ $26 4h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY G2 29¢ $51 4h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag SELL Spirit 99¢ $359 21h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Spirit 81¢ $302 22h
Will B8 qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs? SELL Yes 4¢ $17 22h
Will G2 win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $27 22h
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $51 23h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 32¢ $77 23h
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Spirit (-3.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+3.5) SELL Spirit 50¢ $213 23h
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Spirit (-3.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+3.5) BUY Spirit 56¢ $101 23h
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Spirit (-3.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+3.5) BUY Spirit 57¢ $152 24h
Will B8 qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs? BUY Yes 9¢ $46 24h
Will Falcons qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs? BUY No 24¢ $10 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-27.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 58 -14.9% -23.0% 45% 40% -3.7%
≤30d 147 -20.1% -27.7% 42% 38% -8.6%
≤90d 147 -20.1% -27.7% 42% 38% -8.6%
all 147 -20.1% -27.7% 42% 38% -8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover12.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.7% 38% -8.6%
10% -34.6% 35% -17.3%
15% -41.0% 33% -25.3%
20% -46.7% 26% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $361.13 · official $361.13 (match) · 424 history records