Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T10:01:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
29 0x29da…539f world 35 markets active 1h ago coverage 248d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$4,547 (-47%) realized −$4,547 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate34%12W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$274per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$304
7 days−$34
14 days−$34
30 days−$815
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 92% −$4,321
other 4% −$267
finance 2% +$29
tech 2% −$9
politics 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-30.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -20.3% -27.9% 50% 25% -11.3%
≤30d 13 -42.0% -47.5% 23% 8% -28.7%
≤90d 35 -22.9% -30.3% 34% 17% -52.6%
all 35 -22.9% -30.3% 34% 17% -52.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -30.3% 17% -52.6%
10% -36.9% 9% -57.1%
15% -43.0% 6% -61.3%
20% -48.6% 3% -65.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 75% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -48% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt -48% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -39% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$44 vs −$222 · ×0.2 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.1 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

248d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$4,547
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses12 / 23
Open positions0
Markets (closed)35 / 35
History coverage248d
Avg bet$274
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 35 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 18 $560 +$30 +5%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 18 $150 −$34 -23%
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026? Jun 17 $300 −$300 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 15 $739 +$270 +37%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 23 $500 −$5 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 23 $320 −$58 -18%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 22 $588 −$540 -92%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 21 $360 −$152 -42%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 21 $100 −$13 -13%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? May 21 $219 +$3 +2%
Will Sister Sage die in "The Boys: Season 5"? May 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Billy Butcher die in "The Boys: Season 5"? May 19 $7 −$7 -97%
Will The Deep die in "The Boys: Season 5"? May 19 $3 −$3 -96%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? May 13 $200 +$29 +14%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 10 $11 −$6 -53%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 10 $212 +$11 +5%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 10 $192 −$61 -32%
Romanian PM Bolojan out by December 31? May 05 $60 −$49 -82%
Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (HIGH) $435 in May? May 04 $153 −$9 -6%
Chirayu Rana sued? May 04 $52 −$3 -6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 04 $100 −$29 -29%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st? May 02 $76 +$129 +170%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026? Apr 25 $85 −$9 -11%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 26, 2026? Apr 24 $263 +$10 +4%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 25, 2026? Apr 24 $127 −$92 -72%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 24, 2026? Apr 24 $90 +$26 +29%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026? Apr 24 $129 +$12 +9%
US x Cuba military clash in 2026? Apr 22 $45 −$1 -3%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Apr 22 $30 +$5 +18%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 21 $106 −$24 -23%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April? Apr 21 $25 −$2 -9%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Apr 17 $32 +$4 +13%
Hyperliquid daily fees above $8M in 2025? Apr 16 $198 −$198 -100%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? Apr 16 $28 +$2 +6%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 08 $3,527 −$3,496 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 39¢ $590 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 46¢ $116 5h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 37¢ $560 10h
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026? BUY No 65¢ $300 11h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 60¢ $150 12h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 25¢ $1,009 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 20¢ $218 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 18¢ $364 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 17¢ $157 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? SELL Yes 32¢ $252 25d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? BUY Yes 31¢ $240 25d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $243 25d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? BUY Yes 29¢ $260 25d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL No 27¢ $262 25d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY No 33¢ $320 26d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 5¢ $48 26d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 5¢ $137 27d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 8¢ $100 27d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 7¢ $100 27d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 3¢ $65 27d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 20¢ $87 27d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 7¢ $6 27d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 23¢ $100 27d
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? SELL No 53¢ $222 27d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 6¢ $60 28d
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? BUY No 53¢ $219 28d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 8¢ $100 28d
Will Billy Butcher die in "The Boys: Season 5"? BUY No 30¢ $7 29d
Will The Deep die in "The Boys: Season 5"? BUY No 17¢ $3 29d
Will Sister Sage die in "The Boys: Season 5"? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 29d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 105 history records