Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T02:43:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
29 0x29d8…e1b3 sports 390 markets active 0h ago coverage 17d
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (81 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$505 (+6%) realized +$448 · open +$57
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate52%181W / 165L
Drawdown81%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day80.7pace
Fees−$122est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$912now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$67
7 days−$37
14 days+$418
30 days+$428
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$486
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (81 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-3.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 260 -0.2% -9.7% 48% 45% -10.1%
≤30d 346 +7.2% -3.1% 52% 47% -4.3%
≤90d 346 +7.2% -3.1% 52% 47% -4.3%
all 346 +7.2% -3.1% 52% 47% -4.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover80.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -3.1% 47% -4.3%
10% ← realistic here -12.3% 37% -13.4%
15% -20.8% 32% -21.8%
20% -28.6% 25% -29.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late +6% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$18 · ×1.05 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.15 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

17d coverage
Net worth$912
Realized+$448
Unrealized+$57
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses181 / 165
Est. fees paid−$122
Open positions43
Markets (closed)346 / 390
History coverage17d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day80.7
Drawdown81%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 43 History 346 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Colorado Rockies (-1.5) Colorado Rockies 16¢ 60¢ $30 $117 +$87 (+289%)
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-2.5) Colorado Rockies 54¢ 98¢ $30 $54 +$24 (+79%)
Spread: Athletics (-1.5) Athletics 42¢ 68¢ $30 $49 +$19 (+62%)
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Athletics 54¢ 80¢ $30 $44 +$14 (+48%)
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Detroit Tigers 67¢ 98¢ $30 $43 +$13 (+45%)
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 10.5 Under 60¢ 80¢ $30 $40 +$10 (+32%)
Spread: Detroit Tigers (-2.5) Detroit Tigers 35¢ 88¢ $15 $38 +$23 (+151%)
Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-1.5) Arizona Diamondbacks 64¢ 75¢ $30 $35 +$5 (+16%)
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5) Athletics 78¢ 86¢ $28 $31 +$3 (+10%)
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 11.5 Over 73¢ 76¢ $30 $31 +$1 (+3%)
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5 Under 50¢ 50¢ $29 $29 +$0 (+0%)
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 12.5 Under 65¢ 68¢ $24 $25 +$1 (+5%)
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 7.5 Under 35¢ 54¢ $15 $23 +$8 (+53%)
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5) Colorado Rockies 66¢ 96¢ $15 $21 +$7 (+45%)
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 9.5 Under 53¢ 74¢ $15 $21 +$6 (+39%)
Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5) Cleveland Guardians 34¢ 46¢ $15 $20 +$5 (+35%)
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 11.5 Under 70¢ 86¢ $15 $18 +$3 (+23%)
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 12.5 Under 75¢ 90¢ $15 $18 +$3 (+20%)
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 7.5 Over 22¢ 40¢ $10 $18 +$8 (+80%)
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 7.5 Under 73¢ 60¢ $20 $17 −$3 (-17%)
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 7.5 Over 75¢ 78¢ $15 $16 +$1 (+4%)
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5) Arizona Diamondbacks 37¢ 38¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+1%)
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-2.5) Arizona Diamondbacks 26¢ 26¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-2%)
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Los Angeles Dodgers 44¢ 20¢ $30 $14 −$16 (-53%)
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 11.5 Over 44¢ 39¢ $15 $13 −$2 (-11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 6.5 Jun 16 $15 −$15 -100%
Spread: Minnesota Twins (-2.5) Jun 16 $13 +$8 +64%
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers Jun 16 $17 −$17 -100%
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 10.5 Jun 16 $23 −$23 -100%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 9.5 Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5) Jun 16 $16 −$16 -100%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 16 $5 $0 +2%
Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-2.5) Jun 16 $15 −$15 -100%
Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5) Jun 16 $15 −$15 -100%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 6.5 Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 10.5 Jun 16 $23 −$23 -100%
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $11 −$11 -100%
Spread: Miami Marlins (-2.5) Jun 16 $30 +$2 +8%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 16 $15 −$15 -100%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 10.5 Jun 16 $30 +$16 +53%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 9.5 Jun 16 $30 +$22 +74%
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) Jun 16 $30 −$30 -100%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 7.5 Jun 16 $30 +$39 +127%
Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5) Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-2.5) Jun 16 $30 +$59 +195%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 8.5 Jun 16 $30 +$28 +92%
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-4.5) Jun 16 $30 +$95 +314%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $29 +$8 +26%
Spread: Washington Nationals (-2.5) Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Kansas City Royals (-2.5) Jun 16 $4 +$1 +31%
Spread: Washington Nationals (-3.5) Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Spread: Washington Nationals (-4.5) Jun 16 $15 +$3 +20%
Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5) Jun 16 $30 +$18 +59%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 10.5 Jun 16 $30 −$30 -100%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $30 −$30 -100%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5 Jun 16 $5 +$9 +170%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5 Jun 16 $30 +$25 +83%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $30 −$13 -43%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 6.5 Jun 16 $15 +$4 +30%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $15 +$4 +30%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 15 $30 −$2 -7%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 12.5 Jun 15 $30 −$17 -57%
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5) Jun 15 $30 −$7 -24%
Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5) Jun 15 $30 +$4 +14%
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-2.5) Jun 15 $26 +$4 +16%
Spread: Texas Rangers (-2.5) Jun 15 $30 +$2 +7%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Spread: Texas Rangers (-3.5) Jun 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 11.5 Jun 15 $31 −$31 -100%
Spread: Texas Rangers (-4.5) Jun 15 $30 +$17 +56%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 10.5 Jun 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5 Jun 15 $30 $0 -1%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5 Jun 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 7.5 Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-2.5) BUY Tampa Bay Rays 30¢ $2 0m
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-3.5) BUY Chicago Cubs 4¢ $2 0m
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-3.5) BUY Chicago Cubs 4¢ $1 0m
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-3.5) BUY Chicago Cubs 4¢ $0 0m
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-3.5) BUY Chicago Cubs 4¢ $2 0m
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 18¢ $0 12m
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 18¢ $5 12m
Spread: Athletics (-2.5) BUY Athletics 41¢ $1 46m
Spread: Athletics (-2.5) BUY Athletics 41¢ $1 47m
Spread: Athletics (-2.5) BUY Athletics 41¢ $2 47m
Spread: Athletics (-2.5) BUY Athletics 41¢ $1 47m
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 59¢ $2 48m
Spread: Athletics (-1.5) BUY Athletics 53¢ $6 48m
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 11.5 BUY Over 44¢ $15 48m
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-3.5) BUY Athletics 88¢ $4 48m
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5) BUY Athletics 76¢ $8 48m
Spread: Athletics (-4.5) BUY Athletics 26¢ $4 48m
Spread: Athletics (-2.5) BUY Athletics 44¢ $5 48m
Spread: Athletics (-1.5) BUY Athletics 53¢ $1 48m
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5) BUY Athletics 79¢ $3 48m
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 63¢ $8 48m
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 10.5 BUY Over 13¢ $2 48m
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 10.5 BUY Over 13¢ $2 49m
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 10.5 BUY Over 13¢ $2 49m
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5) BUY Athletics 79¢ $2 49m
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5) BUY Athletics 79¢ $15 49m
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 71¢ $4 49m
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 10.5 BUY Over 16¢ $2 49m
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 10.5 BUY Over 16¢ $3 49m
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 10.5 BUY Over 16¢ $5 49m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $912.35 · official $911.67 (match) · 1746 history records